Absolutely no need for pardon. Appreciate your comments enormously. If I could find a way to reliably and consistently bang out a few points a day ... Thank you. I am going to do some work with your suggestions. Expect some follow up questions.
No, the traverse is not annotated as an FF traverse, just a traverse that moves from the RTL to the LTL of the red down channel. gooch87
Looks to me like you don't just blindly trade all tapes, but instead you look for what seems like a complete point three formation on some fractal (whatever that is - something with increasing black after point three on some fractal). In other words it seems to me that you treat the tape break with taking out the previous bar range by a couple of ticks as a change signal on that fractal. But how do you handle the exit. For example, in the attached, on the right is the entry you suggested ( red arrow) and on the left would be a similar entry today. In both cases we have a point three formation which doesn't have everything it needs to be a 5 min ES level traverse. So, looking at tapes without taking into consideration the whole context, these two cases seems identical. In both cases, based on what I see, the sequence for down trend is not completed. In one case the RTL was broken and faster fractal traverse was created in another case the retrace was formed as a lateral. In both cases we get increasing red volume as price approached the RTL, however, in one case one would have held through increasing red volume successfully but in another - not. The only possible clue may be provided by YM: today there was an accelerated traverse to put p2 outside of. On friday, YM had to put p2 outside of RTL which caused the breach of ES RTL IMO. But everything should be evident from ES only, as we told, so I can't really tell if any of the above makes any sense at all.
In other words I suspect the reason why you would have taken one trade and not another is in those few thousand screen hours
in the 2nd example what is happening in the pace levels is different The ibv that broke the down tape took out the previous red guas peak and the irv's that followed were at a much lower pace level furthermore the 2nd irv was lower than the first. I associate this with a non dom move. I use tapes much like WGT. I draw one level of gaussians to match the tapes. I look for tapes that have decreasing vol(drop of pace) and look to take those breaks when antiicipating a pt3. As for the exits, I am horrible at those. I still jump fractals and exit on the 2 min SOC. This is my area that needs improvement. When in doubt I get out and start the process over.
... there are multiple differences between the two situations ... they result in being long Fri at 1215, and today at 1500 being short ... look at the relative volume levels, bars' volatility, etc.
Damn, you're good. Thank you. The volume peaks are decreasing indeed in the 12/19 example. Despite of the fact that we have IRV - this seems to be non-dom part of the up movement. So, it's a hold situation. Today, however, we have a lateral formation BO and with no more increasing volume on 1455 dbv ibgs closing inside the lateral - this seems like textbook case of no change in trend.
Spyder, Seeing as I put a foot wrong on Friday 12/19 which threw off my sequences for Monday. I have attempted to annotate "roughly" the sequences which completed the non-dominant traverse and which would have placed me on the right side for PFC. Can you comment as to whether this is accurate? Thanks for any insight.