ITC Morning Meeting

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by dfuller33, Feb 15, 2008.

  1. Good Morning--- US Economic data came as expected, and stocks slid after an early good start, but the long end of USTs got obliterated amid a total mortgagewipe out and fears of switches in futures deliverables. The front end liked what it heard from BB, but the long end did not like the perhaps overly-easy quality of the comments which were pretty much in line with what the mkt would have expected given the current situation and recent fed rhetoric. Big rallies in commodities prices probably did not help the long end much, though TIPS really did not reflect any big change in inflation expectations. We heard big flows once again y'day, with much better buying of long bonds on weakness, good mortgage selling of 5s and 10s, and good late day real money buying of 5s 10s and bonds. The big steepening of 5s / 10s played havoc with 10 year note futureslongs, as nervousness about a switch in the CTD drove Nov 14's about a basis point richer against 5's and off the run 10s, and left futures contracts in the dirt. In Tokyo, USTs are a smidgen higher on modest Japanese RM buying of 3yr and 10yr. Good bid in the front end. JGBs and NIK pretty much unch. EGBs should open unch/slightly higher. EGBs were subject to domestic and Asian RM buying of 10yr and 15yr paper y'day and insurer/RM buying of 30yr, esp periphs. There werestrong bids everytime we pushed below 116.00 from the RM community. We did see Bunds push to 115.81 as these flows backed off into the 18.00GMT and as USTs came under pressure, but we went out at 116.00 at 21.00GMT. We're listening out for further RM demand today, which should underpin. No more supply this week. As for data, with a likely acceleration in imports, coupled with softer exports,should have pushed down the EU nominal goods trade balance in Decto a level of ?1.5bn (sa), down from +?2.7bn in Nov. ECB's Trichet on "Structural reforms" at the ABC Forum in Madrid at 14.45GMT. No UK data. Bunds to open around 116.00, Bobls at 110.75, Schatz at 104.80.

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