Incubation time was told to be 5 days, later they said it was 14 days, and now they say it can be even 27 days. In the US 0.4% of the population is tested. Only that group of people know how their personal situation is at this moment (reinfection seems to be possible). At the same time in Wuhan there are signs of a second wave as local people get infected again. In short nobody knows with any certainty how things will go. There seem to be better experts on ET than there are experts with a medical university degree. The only real situation will be visible in hindsight, when all is over. 3 months ago nobody would believe that in NY so many people would die that they need cooled trucks to pile up the deaths as the morgues are already full.
It is important to stick to the facts. Thats why the data from the likes of Diamond Princess is so valuable. It shows in hindsight how bad this thing actually was with almost complete certainty for a specific situation. Hardly any guess work involved: Total 712 infections 12 deaths. 1.67% death rate among all those infected. The only guess work might be they missed a few infections but they tested everyone and followed up afterwards, so unlikely they missed very many. The other facts at the moment: Current known cases world wide: 1,141,425 known cases. 61,205 deaths + 40,000 critically ill. Current rate of known case doubling time, every 8 days. These are the current and past facts, anything else like trying to guess the true infection rate is, is just that: guess work.
The fact that 46.5% of Diamond Princess infections were asymptomatic at time of testing supports the hypothesis that many people in the world are/have been infected and don't know it. Also, I haven't been able to find any info about the ages of the Diamond Princess passengers. Have you?
I wanted to post that, shared it on a few of the threads already. I've been saying for ages the math's is just stupid and wrong, but math's are a failing well with everyone these days and logic. They need to get over the entire, must not catch and accept it's just like a flu, you catch it once, 99.9% of the time, no big deal and you move on. China doing a lock down again unofficial so far, the lock down stopped it, not everyone has it, so ofcourse it's going to come back unless you lock down for ever ever then never let anyone into your country, cause the second someone brings it back, the lockdowns are back. It's an irrational fear, odds are much higher dying in a car crash popping down to the local shops. Take it back what I said about you John
Why does everyone want to numbers to be 3%+ it's odd, you explain and they either can't accept there wrong which they are, or there idiots, or they want more people to die to justify the error's they've made by on mass bullying the world into lock downs which have done nothing but put millions out of work. UK's it's over here, hospitals all geared up and ready for the surge this week and guess what, empty, it was over with the 14day lag before the lockdown came, all this shit and cost for absolutely NOTHING!!
You're not factoring in for population density on a cruise ship vs in the real world. Princess cruise has a population density of about 26k people per sq km. (3711 people with 1.5m sq ft of space) That's about the same density as Manhattan. If only 19% got infected in that kind of density, we will see much smaller numbers in the real world in cities with less density.
The cruise ship data tells you the actual death rate for the demographic on the cruise ship that got infected. Every infection was accounted for. 712 total infections 12 deaths The death rate was 1.7% for the demographic that was infected with almost absolute certainty. Extrapolating that to the wider population studies gives a death rate of 1% for everyone who will get it. Not just the known cases. The ships infected demographic was older than the general population. But if you adjust for that you get a death rate of about 1% for the general population. The only question seems to be is how many people will get infected before we find a vaccine. Hopefully all these lock downs will mean not many people will catch it. Especially among the old, sick and obese. But if we get 10million infections in the US before the vaccine it looks like that will be 100K deaths.
Your forgetting the age, full of 70+ year olds, many with health conditions, cruising is easier than other holidays so it attracts them. GF only 48 addicted to, got C19 either on the cruise ship, or the 7hours stuck in Singapore airport about 2months ago know.
Don't forget, limited medical care, no oxygen ???, no ventilators most of those not been stuck on a ship would of likely survived.