So where's our Spanish89 now? Enjoying la Dolce Vita with the truckload of cash he made on his brilliant trade, I guess. Enjoy the Champagne, buddy! Only blood in the street is the red overflowing from your account...
Panic buying on italian BTPs ? BTP-BUND spread 310bps 10Y 4.96% 5Y 3.5% 1Y 0.59% shorter durations @ negative yield I wanna say thank you, a huge thank you to all the moron fund managers all over the world who sold italian BTPs and made my gains possible. A thank you from me and from all other italians like me, who bought our own debt at discount prices. Thank you idiots, I wish you don't get fired by your clients
The sad thing is that many aspects of fundamental analysis have been rendered useless over the past few years as central banks and governments influence on financial markets have grown significantly. It's just a crazy situation where the main investment decision is "risk on or risk off" and then buy or sell your favorite risk asset based on that view.
Where do you get the idea that it was the "moron fund managers" that have sold BTPS? Most BTPS have been sold by real money people, who don't want to have anything to do with the credit... They still don't want it, regardless of how badly it gets squeezed.
It probably was never different. At least (for now) we still have (mostly) the freedom to chose which asset to own as opposed to just a few decades ago for instance where it was forbidden to own gold in the US.
You're right regarding that specific freedom (owning gold) where it was not possible previously. However I look fondly upon times pre-2008 when bailouts and crony capitalism were only an academic concept. Also as an aside, was it possible to investment in silver / platinum when gold investment was deemed illegal?
Why sad ? IMHO it's even easier: we are in a fractional reserve, central banking money system, every analysis must involve central bank possible actions. I've been writing since 2008 that the best we could expect is a lost decade, Japan style. Didn't Japanese experience teach us anything ? So we have 6 years more of this lost decade and central banks LTRO stuff. Beware, I might be wrong: it could be 2 lost decades
m22au, the previous century was the most deadly in Europe's history and 50 years ago black people could not ride the bus in the US... I think there will always be things better and worse then before... Great, now I sound like a priest.