Does this mean trading bar by bar with typical trade length being 1 bar, or is it just the minimum waiting time for trades at that TF?
irving fisher, a famous economist in his time, made this prediction just before the 1929 Crash. he is remembered only for this remark. " It would take an ‘immaculate conception’ to create bear market in stocks right now: analyst" the analyst who made this remark if he ever become famous would be remembered for this remark, nothing else, when the market tanks.
No, no, not trading bar by bar, but reassessing the situation bar by bar (before opening position, after opening position , while in position , and even after closing the positione) using the trading method. And since usually trader uses multiple chart for one instrument with the different scales, where there will be a different situation develop in each scale, therefore trader must reassess situation on multiple charts of the same instrument, again bar by bar. Trader may have some ideas where the support and resistance are (but the same ideas has almost every participant of the market ), the difference is: the trader has to be able to properly assess those S/R - in which scale to play them out, to view them through and in relationship with other trends and S/R in the vicinity, assessing and reassessing the development bar by bar, especially in accelerating or decelerating price movements. In light of all that any prediction like "it will (must) go there" - really laughable ... trader does not know when and how price will behave...but he does not need to. There is an old Wall Street saying: "I have a bad and a good news for you: the bad news is nobody can predict the market; the good news - one does not need to predict the market to make money on it". Imho it is still true.
By far, my WORST trading & investing mistake was buying TVIX and holding it thinking it's the absolute low. It can go a LOT LOT lower... Without that stupid mistake, I would have been up nicely... I feel so frustrated and been run above by this bull market... haha
Hey ETers, WHAT SHOULD I DO?! TVIX is by FAR my WORST trades! I've done well with Bitcoin and other futures trading. But I'm still holding this stinkin' bag of poop called TVIX. The only hope I get of a turnaround is reading stupid Zerohedge that has these fantasy scenarios of when volatility will shoot up in a big crash and leveraged volatility products like TVIX will go to moon. But everyday, it keeps going fcking down. I hate it! Should I just bite the bullet and take the biggest loss in my portfolio and move on... It's the biggest drag on my performance. Everything else is doing OK to good. But this TVIX is a real drag...
Big turnaround, noone knows. But whatever the drawdown, there are always dead cat bounce and OK exits. Friday 16th October 1987, Stan Druckenmiller was dead long. Monday 19th, the market gapped down and he was able to close all his positions with a limited loss during a short dead cat bounce. After that, market was down 25%. CM
Two helpful TA rules I'm keeping in mind to avoid most price falls. Exit equity / index longs if either - 20EMA crosses below 50EMA price closes below 50EMA These two rules would have got you into cash before 16 of the 20 worst single day price falls on the Dow since 1900. Including the 1929 crash.
Ironically Wall Street can't help being Wall Street: Some Bear Risk Factors: (1) Risk Factors are there: like Steinhoff in the leveraged lending universe whereby over $400 mn in syndicated lending by famous banks, was backed by equity (!) in Steinhoff itself! They call it "margin" lending, but really it was for Steinhoff M&A deals! (2) Wall street bringing in bitcoin will pull in risk like crazy, into clearing, into liquidity,.... (3) Exchange rates, (4) implosion of EU (UK betting on it).