It is worth revisiting

Discussion in 'Trading' started by wxytrader, May 12, 2024.

  1. how stupidly misinformed it is lol. I hope you guys have learned something since we last discussed the topic.

    I will start this out by saying that it is just as easy for a stock to go from $5 to $10 as it was to go from $10 to $5.. mathematical percentages are not probabilities. Probability is based on the average true range or a standard deviation.

     
    Last edited: May 12, 2024
  2. Darc

    Darc

    @wxytrader can you just give us a rundown on your experience and qualifications etc to be presenting us with so much "educating" over numerous Threads please.

    EDIT I just watched the Vid. Talk about basic Maths. It even contradicts OP's previous Threads. What a NumbNiuts!

    Once again, averaging down an individual Stock seems Russian Roulette. Where are the Guru Stock traders in here: @stonedinvestor @vanzandt @themickey

    Is I right?
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2024
    engineering and p0box4 like this.
  3. zdreg

    zdreg

    Darc likes this.
  4. This video was written by a person with
    very little experience with personal Losses.
    Just move on.
     
  5. The premise and the conclusion in the video is ridiculously wrong.
     
  6. Guys...this isn't about averaging down...it's just plain wrong to think that a stock has a harder time going from $5 to $10 than going from $10 to $5 dollars lol. MARA and CLSK do this every week! Ever heard of a trading range or a channel? Price does this with regularity.
     
  7. I left my last "day job" in 2006, (HSBC Bank, Jersey City,)
    Since then I have traded for myself, for a living.
    I know all about losses.
    If you get them,, how to recover.
    I think my last losing year was 2012.
    And I haven't had an equity at a loss for quite some time.
    Please .move on.
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2024
    semperfrosty likes this.
  8. You are looking at a small sample and using hindsight bias.

    I would guess over all stocks, on average, over the long run, it takes about twice as long for a stock to double than to half.
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2024
  9. There is no hindsight here lol. You are saying that the stock market has a long bias and climbs slower than it drops...the video is not addressing this charactertic...the video is trying to say that the recovery back to $10 is hindered by math! How do you guys not see the problem with the logic here????

    The probability of price moving to any level is measured by atr and standard deviations...not the percentage it has dropped lol.
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2024
  10. Stocks return what? Say 8% a year on average.
    Therefore it takes the average stock about 10 years to double in value, over the long run.

    No getting away from that, shout about short terms ATR and Stdev all you want.
     
    #10     May 13, 2024