TLT ... LONG position closed out. Satisfied! Now sidelines. So, was 8-16-2010 gap-up an exhuastion gap? Island reversal yet to come? These can be answered in hindsight.
---------------------------------- updated - nice pop at my 78.6% Fib level mentioned. And if this is a reversal, both the 161.8% targets also contributed to the reversal. But we wait for a few days for confirmation.
-------------------------------- Further thoughts on the scenario that if if if if TLT has topped, i.e. rates have bottomed ... and rates start shooting north like a rocket ... will it be because of Inflation .... ? I don't think so. I think it will be because of fears of US govt. default. As this fear increases due to suspicion and/or a shaken belief in the strength of the govt., the govt. will be forced to pay higher and higher rates to satisfy the fear of default within investor groups. This higher Yield will attract money from all sorts of locations and will become a sponge and suck money from other sources causing other investment categories to fail by making their debts worthless. As per the chart I've shown on Yields, this is what I am expecting and is outlined in the CALL earlier in this thread. Fasten seatbelts
I think they bottomed for now, but i don't believe in a V bottom, so i still think that we can go lower first on the yields and then we should go up.... <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><> Feel that's a buy? Then sell... http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
See what I mean (stated elsewhere) by you contradicting yourself all over the place? (You said elsewhere time and again, you don't care whether your call is right or wrong; its all hilarious entertainment. MORON! (This is why I love long-term charts = the larger picture to ferret out jackasses) Even if you never get redeemed on your call, i.e. if your call is totally wrong, you would still get high marks for MAKING THE CALL - in a Serengetti wherein from BARON (in whose presence you're always obsequious, maudlin and sycophantic) all the way down to the doorman, one and all think in exactly the same way which BARON calls "having no crystal ball" but better put would be "having no balls" = "only reactive" = "zero-prescience" .... conclusion: always better to be a cock in a densely populated henhouse. Note: you are already doing this in Pattaya but a virtual henhouse is not so shabby. Foolish man give wife grand piano. Wise man give wife upright organ.