Thanks for your detail instruction. please give us more and more information like this, It's very useful to do trade
Try a different angle. Take a couple of days and look at YIELDS, esp. the 10-yr. and 30-yr. When you have done this, now go back to TLT and review your crash call. Not saying you're wrong. Just give it more thought. 97.63 is a big support for TLT so it will at least hold while you read up on yields. ----------------------------------- Boy who go to sleep with hard problem wake up with solution in hand.
TLT has strong support at $97.00. No sign of crash. No sign of weakening trend. No massive selling volume to speak of. How did you arrive at this analysis?
Descending triangle on the 10 year yield with 2.88 as the base. No position as this appears too textbook easy. Throw in the AAII numbers, and it appears people swing back to the bearish side too fast. And OMG, the CRB is marching ever higher. Wheat thru the roof. Inflation while bonds pricing in deflation???? Makes no sense.
I learned a valuable lesson after losing time and time again. Calling tops in uptrends is a losing game. Countertrend technical analysis doesnt work for me. When the force is strong, it just eats support or resistance for breakfast. Now on the bigger pic it doesnt look that strong but that's another trend altogether. This is when it gets confusing trends within trends within trends, all colliding opposing each other. Ya trend is your friend but which one! 100 trends 100 friends 100 enemies, darn this shit not easy
Let me help you, Nexen, although as history shows consistently, the messenger always gets a kick in the ass. You're post content screams, "I don't got the basics down" .... that's all it really is. Doesn't mean you're a bad guy or dense or anything like that. You just need to knuckle down and restudy the basics. Believe me the basics is where its at. And even with that there are no guarantees but at least you'll be at the gunfight with a gun instead of just a knife. TREND basics are there to be had and learned. Don't miss out. Its a beautiful subject.
My apologies to Nexen - I just read what I wrote and the grammar is terrible. I'm skunker than a drunk. Sorry my friend.
------------------------------------- Following up with my original thoughts (I'm drunk at the moment but I'm usually dumber when sober) ......... note friday's lower volume on a down day? see the upside crosses of the moving averages as mentioned? see that Macd is almost at the 0-line? ... means support in the HERD's mind as acceleration is a key ingredient in those who eat in the meadows. see the massive green horizontal support line? see the POSSIBLE parallel channel? see the volume trendline? A breakout here should be pounced on with ferocity. can the lower trendline break and we go to 38.2% retracement? Sure, but why change the LONG? This is what trends do. There is however one scenario that bothers me .... more when I'm sober tomorrow Uploaded with ImageShack.us