It is now time to sell sell sell your TLT - Bonds are going to crash

i'm long the TBT through ratio backspreads... i thought it was the wisest choice.. gives me the best risk to reward ratio... if it doesn't go up that much.. no big deal

 

Nice strategy. I don't think it's going to soar (TBT), but I think the bottom is in. Put credit spreads are another way to go.

 

thats a good idea my backspreads are with leaps.. theres no adversity to owning the TBT right? i mean it doesn't lose value like ETF's based on futures right?

 

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Great points;
great risk reward points.

a]TLT is still making an acceptable uptrend;
except for the following bearish data.

b]Weekly Buy volume is decreasing- thats bearish.
Ben B fed head ,maybe be the best fed head, i like him a lot;
but no man, no fed, no gov is bigger than the market[Dow theory]

c]5th wave up ,that may be bullish or bearish[weekly long term trend.];
but up trends are not predictions.

d] Taking the last 1/8 [or last .25]out of a trade;
that may not be bearish, but it can get exspensive.LOL

E,]People selling on the way up[weekly charts];
its your call.

F/failure]Actually trying to take the last quarter out of a long trend;
can be profitable, even with a crash/huge sell slippage. It still can work, if one got in early& likes/plans on huge drawdowns.

Not a prediction; simply wisdom.LIke the trader said who shorted C, fundamentals win in the end

 

No, the big, BIG risk in TBT is some sort of crisis that results in 1000 point drop in the Dow.
TBT will most definitely crash in that case.
The big question is: despite the above scenario, can the 10 yr TBond go below 1% ?
I mean in Europe, some rates are negative !!!

 

i've got a ratio backspread on the TBT for that exact reason.. if it stays down or goes lower.. i don't get screwed!

 

1.46% on the Ten year....wow.
This has been a tough bottom to call...for the rates.
It's like drawing a line in the sand, and then it gets crossed.

 

.. my question is there any depreciation cost for holding the tbt for a really long time

 

I doubt it simply because of the high internal turnover of the components of this kind of ETF.
Here's a great article on the whole interest rate mess as it relates to these special ETFs:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/562871-attractive-interest-rate-play-with-treasury-etf-options

 

why not short zroz vs. tbt?