Ok elitetraders. I have come here today to infom you it is now time to sell sell sell your TlT. The bond market is going to crash!!!
just curius-if you long TLT(yielding 3.95% according to yahoo) and short TBT/2-will you be able to collect dividends? do the holders of TBT pay any interest? i'm not familiar with those at all. appreciate your answers Thank you!
Jim Rogers has said many times the bond market is in a bubble. Jim has said a lot of things in the past and he was right, but the thing is that his advice oftentimes took time to play out. You had to have patience. Looking at the chart and taking into consideration Jim's advice, I think now is the time. Its also quite obvious the government cannot keep up spending at this great rate just like the tech stocks of the past could not keep up. There can be a bubble in bonds like anything else. The true signal is what is going on in small towns and cities around the United States which is basically Chapter 7. What do you know about the market? The small caps usually get hit first followed by the larger caps. As the smaller caps get hit, then money flows into the larger ones as folks believe that is the safe bet. However, oftentimes, if there is sickness in the smaller caps then there is sickness in the larger caps. Think of the cities as the small cap stocks. Muni investors are flocking to the US bonds thinking the government will save their investment. I think now is the time to get SHORT TLT with a target of 70 dollars to occur in the next 3 months.
These secular bear markets always end badly. The lunatics at the Fed are finally seeing the Japanese type deflation scenario a real possibility. Their solution: QE2, buy more Treasuries. This will end badly.
Not quite ready to get out of TLT yet. As a wise sage said, you have two choices: you can sell too early, or you can sell too late. Those are your only choices. In answer to the TBT payout question, it looks like they have paid a distribution only once, in 3rd quarter of 2008. Hopefully we are not going there again.
There's another guy, even better than Rogers, who said last week, that something suspicious is going on with TLT. Will give it some thought next week, but for starters after a brief glance, dig this ... Noticed the volume? Volume ought to go with the trend, right? And it is and its larger than that of june-October. Then switch to Weekly and you'll see the volume comparison more clearly. Noticed that daily long-term moving averages are crossing the 200 topside? Noticed the massive support @ 97.3? On the weekly it looked like a Head & Shoulder pattern - but this was blown out the window by the next rally with higher volume, instantly killing the H&S. And in any event the neckline was not even nicked. This is important enough to warrant some deeper thought. Thanks for bring it up, Pops.