We had a textbook multiple attempts the last week to take out the 3600-3650 area and didnt . Now fear is lifting and people rushing into the stocks down 70-90% . People don’t want to miss out of the buys of a lifetime . In the old days ( the last 30 years ) this would be at or near the bottom and buying many of these you’d make 3-5 times your money in the coming yrs. But is this time different ? Are we staring at a Japan type mkt down 50-70% and sideways for decades? the mkts always come right back after a bear since the 1980’s . Is this time different ? With so many peoples retirements in the mkt is this when the long term cruel bear teaches all a lesson? Nobody since the 1970’s in the mkt has ever been tested . No ones seen their portfolio down for 5-10 yrs . People long term hace only felt a year or 2 of pain then right back up . The fed printing was behind 50% of total returns the last 15 yrs . That’s over . It wood be a fitting 5-10 yr top . Rates near zero , 10’s of millions of Reddit traders gambling for easy money ,house prices skying . Time will tell.
traders are not interested to know whether this is the bottom or not. members from eliteinvestors.com should be keen to know.
Need a solid rally to sell more Indexes, market and economy in Bear market. Few days of holding lows means nothing when using monthly charts.
About 5 months left by my reckoning before the Fed makes up inflation data to support pumping markets
Market betting that recession is here and will do what the Fed cannot accomplish by small half point rate hikes - slowing inflation. I think what it's not considering is what that recession does to earnings. I don't think that's priced in yet. And what happens if inflation actually has peaked, but stays at a high level even with the recession. What does Fed do then? We sold of about 500 s&p points in a short amount of time. Market was due for some bounce.
%% Looks like a weekly bottom\ but see how the bear rally closes today...............................................................
Yes, wait until we get earnings going. I've seen companies lie and manipulate there balance sheet. So they may not come clean till after the elections.
The fed will claim victory with every tiny dip in inflation. All you really need to do is follow crude oil. If it stays above $100.00 inflation will stay elevated. I can also see the fed claiming victory if inflation stops rising.
I think there will be political pressure to fight it as long as it remains above about 3.5%. I don't see it coming down easily.