ISRG earnings play

Discussion in 'Options' started by darwin666, Jul 21, 2010.

  1. It's not terribly complex. The 360Cs went off at 3.70bx4.30a, or 4.00 mid. That's fairval.

    The 35-point otm Aug calls will close <1.50 tomorrow, whatever strike that happens to be.
     
    #11     Jul 21, 2010
  2. zdreg

    zdreg

    exactly howdo u get from 4 to less than 1.5
    the 4 0clock price of isrg was about 325. the 360 call had a fv of maybe 4.

    thanks
     
    #12     Jul 21, 2010
  3. I model/trade event volatility for a living. 35 point otm will be 1.50 or lower for August calls by tomorrow-close. I expect some down and out skew, so the puts (35-40 otm) may be slightly bid compared to the equidistant otm calls (dime or so).
     
    #13     Jul 21, 2010
  4. zdreg

    zdreg

    "
    I model/trade event volatility for a living. 35 point otm will be "

    if 35 pts out of the money is 4 today why should it not be 4 tomorrow?
     
    #14     Jul 21, 2010
  5. You're serious?

    The vols will drop 1500bp at minimum, post-earnings.
     
    #15     Jul 21, 2010
  6. zdreg

    zdreg

    were you a market maker on the options exchange?
     
    #16     Jul 21, 2010
  7. I've always traded upstairs.
     
    #17     Jul 21, 2010
  8. huh. .exactly... the EARNINGS is what. .makes the premiums insane. .ha ha.. sometimes when I scan and i find something very lucrative and tempting. the first thing I suspect is. . pre earnings. even very slow moving stocks like MSFT JNJ PEP give good premiums .pre earnings... but when u r suspicious or not sure.. there is no hurry.. u can always play post earnings also..
     
    #18     Jul 22, 2010
  9. spindr0

    spindr0

    --------------------------------------------------
    Quote from spindr0:
    ....free money parade!
    --------------------------------------------------


    That's a nice way to descibe that tin cup with monkey act.
    Nice look!

    :p
     
    #19     Jul 22, 2010
  10. spindr0

    spindr0

    Maybe even worse than 1.5 or 2 given so much time left. But that's a moot (even mute) point since it dropped. Nice trade!
     
    #20     Jul 22, 2010