I was just wondering, what elite traders here think of the israeli ground invasion this week signals a bottom for the market? Just like when bombs started dropping in iraq, the markets started rallying. Is this another case of buy when the cannons roar and sell when the barrels are loading? If the market doesn't rally off the cannon roaring, are the markets signaling something worse off in the future?
=============== Rabman; Markets, like ES,SPY,YM,DIA,QQQQ,NQ have been in downtrends so long; wouldnt count on it. Iraq losers were smart bombed when in young uptrend,its downtrending now ; last Oct lows look next in line, but 4th quarter is usually bullish. Not a prediction. Oil-gas stock sector still looks upttrendy. murray TT
I think the Israelis are out to send a real strong message to these terror groups. Hizbolah have been operating on the premise that Israel will negotiate and free prisoners, as they have done before. But there is a saying about going once too often to the well??? (Maybe that was Hebrew) A bit like OTM credit spreads or selling naked. Its all good until it ain't. Anyway, I think this time the Israelis plan to call their bluff... and to be frank, this is one crew you don't want to be on the wrong side of when they get real pissed. IMO.
Yeah frankly soldier for soldier they Israleis are tougher than anyone, except for some special forces, which they have too. They are battle hardened. The live next to ppl that hate them everyday. If they invade and Lebanese troops get involved we could have the start of WWIII. Seriously that could provoke Syria and Iran and then the US would have to turn them into a sheet of glass. This would really piss off Russia and China, watch out. I hope this shit doesn't happen. If it does, I think the Jihad freaks would use it as justification for suicide bombings in the US. What a wonderful world we live in
Individual geopolitical events do not affect the markets other than that it may accelerate of decelerate what's already going on. What goes down goes down. However, looking at the big picture: Currently having three fronts with the muslim world (Lebanon, Iraq + Afghanistan) is not good for the markets. regards. Ivo
I was thinking that once the ground war starts, traders would go what else is next? That this is probably as bad as it gets. And they will conclude, this is probably as bad as it gets. And we will get a relief rally at least. Murray what do you think about crude. It seems to have run out of steam. It didnt try to make a breakout. That's why I thought we could have made at least a short term bottom.
but they are always implicated. And rumours go around. My take is that is this as bad as the iraq war. My conclusion no. And the market should rally. Emphasis on should. But I think we will have a temporary rally either way and then go back to fundamentals. Is it enought to support a bottom. I don't know. That was my question. But it all depends right. Like you said. If there is another shoe that drops during the weekend.
Israel is taking a big risk here, their objective is to finish off Hezebulloh and then pick a fight with Syria and then finally Iran. If for some reason Syria and Iran jump in rightaway then we are talking nonsense and markets will show the reaction of it. OIl, Gold will be good place to park aggressive funds.