Meanwhile, I just noticed an article that highlights the very same China factor that I just mentioned. I am not sure how the hell Iran cuts off oil shipments through the strait to the west without cutting off shipments to China through the strait. Most likely the Iranians haven't figured that out yet either. Certainly mines floating in the water cannot make that distinction. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/22/us-calls-on-china-to-prevent-iran-from-closing-strait-of-hormuz.html
Iran moved their stockpile. Centrifuges are old tech now. Not a lot has necessarily changed. Laser Isotope Separation a. AVLIS (Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation) How it works: A laser tuned to the absorption spectrum of selectively ionizes it in vapor form. Ionized atoms are then separated with magnets. Efficiency: Potentially much more efficient and compact than centrifuges. Used by: Researched by the U.S. and Russia; reportedly attempted by Iran. Problems: Technically complex, hard to scale safely, secrecy and proliferation concerns. b. SILEX (Separation of Isotopes by Laser Excitation) How it works: Uses laser-excited uranium hexafluoride molecules. Status: Highly classified; licensed to Global Laser Enrichment in the U.S. under strict safeguards. Proliferation risk: Very high due to compact size and efficiency — the IAEA watches this one closely.
Iraq is an example of a smaller "enemy" that the US could easily overwhelm and did but the aftermath wasn't great for the US. Iran is a tougher foe just because you could win a war doesn't make it a good project. And it's a large country occupation would be a huge chore. One red flag is the Chinese had nuclear projects in Iran where the US attacked. That could drag them into any prolonged battle and frankly that's a particular hell the US shouldn't want to get involved in. Vietnam was an example of a country that had allies that eventually led to the US losing the war. You can learn from history or repeat it. Just because you can punch someone in the face at a bar doesn't mean you should. All this bombing and bravado goes nowhere unless you are willing to sacrifice American lives to occupy a country. Does the military really want to be dragged into another senseless war ? Nevermind the obvious moral implications here almost every "pre-emptive" strike is immoral. The A bombs in Japan were a crime against humanity there is evidence that the Japanese were close to surrendering before they were dropped. Dropping two of them was outrageous.
I am not aware of any Chinese nuclear projects in Iran. Certainly Russia had 200 engineers and technicians that were evacuated from one of the Iranian nuclear power plants.
If Iran either attacks oil tankers or mine the strait then there will be no oil tankers transiting the waters. Insurance companies will not insure them -- this does avoid the possibility of a spill from an oil tanker being hit (beyond the first).
No the article is referring to chinese reliance on iranian oil. They have a vested interesed in keeping the strait open.
If the straight is closed down then oil prices will go over $100 per barrel. Probably up to $120 o $140. However this does not translate to a retail gasoline price of $10 to $20 per gallon in the U.S. -- especially keeping in mind that most U.S. oil does not come from the Middle East. The majority of it is from North or South America.
I am a child of the 50's just so you know - and didn't spend that childhood and adulthood under a rock. Fresh out of college I had dealings with the Shah's Iran. Cement, heavy equipment, medical supplies etc. Missed Vietnam by two years, but would have only served if forced to. Fack wars and killings of any kind (include Capital Punishment) other than to protect oneself or someone nearby. The victors write history but I don't recall us winning a war over Iran. What right do we have (or than might) to stop Iran from having a Nuke? Or the Jews from stopping them? Little NK Kim threatens all the time, but he already has bombs so we do dick about it. As soon as we had Nukes USSSR wanted them. Same with India and Pakistan. Yada yada. Same now with the Jews and Iran. Only the Jews learned don't let Iran get it cause then they no longer have a deterrence from another major attack. But no one hmmmm what if all the Arabs did invade - would the Jews nuke a nearby capital or two? Oh no they wouldn't. Prolly right, TACO would for them.
If Iran blocks Saudi oil shipments it's blocking its own oil shipments to China... Let's see how long that lasts.