Isn't It About Time?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by profitseer, Feb 8, 2003.

  1. Many say all indicators are lagging. True. But isn't it about time?

    If a slow indicator gives a signal once a month, and a fast indicator gives a signal once a day, when the slow indicator gives a signal, then you have 30 signals to choose from on the fast time frame.

    So when the slow indicator goes bullish, only take the long signals on the fast indicator until the slow indicator goes bearish, then visa versa.

    Make sense? I know it would to me. I guess you had to have been there.

    At any rate, it is just backwards from how most people try to do it.
  2. I just had a similar experience with a neural net I developed for ES on 1min bars.

    The net's about breakeven over the long run (400+ trades, 1 month of out-of-sample data), and it has really good periods, followed by some not-so-good periods.

    Anyway, when I tested the system with 13min 5/15ma cross as a filter (only trade longs when longer timeframes are long, etc) a strange thing happened.. My win rate went _down_ but my profitability went way up.

    Regardless, it's not really tradeable (at least not for me), but I thought it was interesting.
  3. right, sort of like trading under a favorable sign.

    Same here, nothing I post is really tradeable (at least not for a person of normal intelligence), but I didn't make it this far on my brains.
  4. Banjo


    This is the essence of trading, inertia. You're an industrious guy, try this exercise. Pull up a weekly chart of the SPX that goes back to Sept 2000. Draw these lines :connect the 9/2000 top to the 4/02 top. With an exactly parallel line connect the 3/01 top with the 12/02 top,the low of 4/12/01 to the low of 7/19/ 02 and the low of 3/23/ 01 to the low of 9/ 28/2001. It's important the lines all be parallel. The last time I changed these lines on this chart was march 22,2002 because that new high broke out of the old channel. What you have now is a channel and a sub channel that is containing price.We have been basing since aug 2002. Draw these horizontal lines: Connect the low of 9/28/01 to the high of 8/23/02, a horizontal line at the close of 8/23/02, a line at the close of 10/4/02 and at the low of 10/11/02. This is the base and the sub base, I last adjusted these 10/11/02. You can use fib lines, fib time lines, gann angles, they will all say aproximately the same thing.
    You can see price didn't make it to the top of the base but was repelled by the sub channel line, a dead short. Price encountering these lines represent inflection points, something is going to happen. Notice that once inertia displays itself relative to the inflection point a minimum of four or five bars is produced, a months worth of direction. If the move doesn't start at an iflection point it will be short lived. Look for 100 point moves. This is like following an elephant around, daytrading is like following a hummingbird.

  5. yes. it is ALL about time.


  6. H2O


    This is called trading with MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES.
    I use specialized software for these setups.

    Only trade in the direction of the higher time frame !!!
  7. Banjo


  8. banjo, The only chart I know that goes back to 2000 is yahoo, and it aint much of a chart. So I had to draw the lines in my head.

    Now keep in mind, in my little world, I am talking about a 10 or 15 minute window of opportunity to scalp from one side or another. If it weren't for transaction costs I would be hunting amoeba instead of humming birds.

    Nice work though. "A move which doesn't start from an inflection point will be short lived"

    I use that, but I'll use it more.