Isn't 90% of the size on ES bid/ask just a Bluff?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by aeliodon, May 1, 2008.

  1. The volume on ES is 10x greater than YM.

    Yet the bid/ask on ES is 100x greater than YM.

    So isn't 90% of the bid/ask just a complete bluff?
     
  2. NO
     
  3. ScottD

    ScottD

    aeliodon, I think you have to consider that the daily point range of the YM is roughly 10 times the ES. In this sense, the ES bid/ask is aggregated/compressed roughly 10:1 per price level (tick) compared to YM. It's not quite 10:1...but you get the idea.
     
  4. sometimes they "SPOOF" the size in the metals markets

    and sometimes in the oil markets the "size shown"
    does not matter in the end

    the market does what is needs to do

    :cool:
     
  5. If you watch Market Depth on the ES and compare it to Time and Sales you will notice a dramatic difference. It's not uncommon to see 3000 or 4000 contract parked (sell) at 1450.00 for example, watch the futures trade there and 200 contracts get executed. What and why this is the case is of no relevance to me because I don't use Market Depth to trade the ES but there is definitely some bluffing or games going on.
     
  6. Good point, I forgot about the tick size difference. But even if 1 ES tick = 2.5 YM ticks and 2 ES ticks = 5 YM ticks then still

    ES does 10x the volume YM does

    And a yet the typical order size for 2 ES ticks will show more than 50x the size YM will show for 5 ticks.

    Not only is a lot of the size in ES likely to get pulled in milliseconds once it gets hit with a few 50+ lots, but when real size is there it just keeps refreshing and refreshing.

    I love trading the YM as the fills are pretty instant and there not a lot of fake bids/offers and iceberg orders.

    But I trade the ES thinking when I'm ready for 100 lots, I'll eventually be better off on the ES.

    I also prefer trading SPY compared to ES. I think ES should move to a tick size of .10 = $5. A point would remain $50, but ten intervals per point instead of 4.
     
  7. spoofing is used for a couple of things. It can be used to get shorts off or to buy weakness. By spoofing, dumb money will try to front run and they short into the line jumpers. It is also used for feelers of how deep the market really is. No one shows their true hand in es dom. It is really worthless without watching time and sales with it. If they are spoofing on the bid, and it falls and the size was not hit then you know it was pulled by watching time and sales, if they are spoofing on the bid and someone drills the whole bid, then you know a big seller is lurking. Size attracts size.
     
  8. yes it's completely fluff or fake.

    the market makers are on the bid and ask.