Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mikecronan, Mar 15, 2006.
any candlestickers care to confirm this please?
I thought island reversal was more of a western technical analysis thing? But then again, many Japanese and Western technical patterns converge.
I think it is a likely bottom. Markets are bullish as well, which will help.
Almost resembles an island reversal, but I'm not too positive if it actually is one... I'd say no.
Check out SFCC.
BULL. Double bottom breakout.
still has to close morning star gap of 10/20/05 -10/21/05. not bullish till 46 to 46.40 level
That's a common misconception.
Yes, a former gap up would provide support, but closing a gap up is BEARISH
Not an island reversal, and yes an island is western TA.
From a candlestick standpoint - on the daily chart it is a frying pan bottom. The criteria for this are that the market is in a downtrend and then forms a concave pattern. The pattern is confirmed with a rising window.
On the daily chart the concave bottom forms from 3/15 - 3/23 and the rising window confirms the pattern on 3/24. A close below the bottom of the rising window at 56.41 will invalidate the pattern.
Of some concern is that both the high and the close on 3/24 were below the 50 day EMA at 58.78. The 50 day EMA provided resistance from 2/27 - 3/3. The question is will it hold again?
I believe there is a good bullish case to be made. If you look at the 60 min chart all candles on 3/24 closed above the 200 period EMA, which it failed to do on its last attempt from 2/28 - 3/3. Also on the weekly chart the last 2 weeks had higher closes with last week closing more than half way into the long red candle of 2 weeks prior and support just above 52 was confirmed over the last 3 weeks.
I don't trade SNDK (yet) and know nothing of its fundamentals. So I would check for any contrary fundamental data before committing to a bullish trade based on the technicals.
On the subject of gaps:
In candlestick analysis once a window (gap) is closed it is closed forever and is not used again for support or resistance. Another factor such as a particular pattern may make the same price support or resistance, but it is a coincidence and not attributed to the window.
The rising window (gap) on 10/20 - 10/21, the bottom of which was 49.50, would not be considered support again since this window was closed on 11/21.
However, if you look closely there was another small window on 12/14 - 12/15 with a bottom at 52.14. Take note that the low of the recent weeks was at 52.15 confiirming the support of this window. Another point for the bulls.
The multiple candle formation of the island doesn't seem to signal as strong a move as the abandoned baby type that would happen after a sharp panic move or after a significant move in a direction. (to answer your question , yes it looks like one)
This is just my opinion- I'm not quoting a book or anything.
If you draw channel lines you'll see that the resistance line is broken (top line) which adds to your analysis.
this is the type i was referring to (Abandoned baby).
Sandisk has a few more resistance areas on the way up, they make nice finger swipers, hope they do well.
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