Is win rate important in trading?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ninZa.co, May 20, 2025 at 12:05 AM.

  1. tomkat22

    tomkat22

    High win rates are usually the domain of labor intensive,churn n burn day traders. Small PF is usually the order of the day for those guys.
     
  2. Businessman

    Businessman

    What's an acceptable PF for you?
     
  3. tomkat22

    tomkat22

    I'm primarily a discretionary swing trader and only trade stocks(not options) so using a set PF doesn't work too well,at least not for me. I guess thats why they call it discretionary. LOL
     
  4. Hello MarkBrown,

    Thank you for the response.

    ALL intraday systems I built and tested with PF<1.5 do not position size well and scale to +$200,000 or higher year to year in back test from 2010 to present May 20,2025.

    So its impossible for me to be rich (+$1million) with intraday systems year to year with 0-5 years. it is not worth my time and effort any more. Too complicated.
     
  5. Of course Win Rate is important in trading. All traders should aim for a greater than 70% hit rate. Continually refine, process and understand until you can achieve that

    The perfect storm in trading is having both a high win rate and a high risk: reward ratio. Precision combined with leverage
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2025 at 1:24 PM
  6. Businessman

    Businessman

    You forgot high opportunity.

    You might be able to find high win rate and a high risk: reward ratio, but you won't find it with high opportunity. Otherwise you just found the holy grail and will be rich in no time without much sweat.

    In reality if you aim for a R:R higher than 1:1, win rate starts to drop below 50%, no getting around it. The higher the R:R the lower the win rate tends to be.

    An example of a holy grail is actually 65% win rate with just a 1:1 RR but with enough opportunity, like 100 to 200 trades per year, then just bet fully Kelly (or even half Kelly) you will be rich in no time.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2025 at 1:29 PM
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  7. I'm not concerned with all that boring anal technicality.

    The Holy Grail is being able to understand, process and time the daily S&P and greatly amplify that daily intraday movement chart line through options
     
  8. Businessman

    Businessman

    You made the bold claim of 70% win rate and high R:R

    In reality if you can trade the S&P with 'just' a 65% win rate and even 1:1 you will be rich in no time assuming you can actually do it.

    In reality nobody can do can do that high a win rate over the long run even with a modest 1:1 and also do it with enough trades per month or year.
     
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  9. Like I said, the perfect storm/Holy Grail is being able to understand, process and time the daily S&P, combined with leverage options.

    70% or greater is not outside the realm of fantasy. With options...the risk reward ratio is greater than 1:1 standard stock or futures.

    Through compounding...a million dollars in less than two weeks from a small initial balance as a framework image reference
     
  10. 2rosy

    2rosy

    selling atm straddles has about 60% win rate. is that the way to go?