Is USD/JPY a chronic long

Discussion in 'Forex' started by polee2000, Jul 27, 2010.

  1. just keep naked putting this sucker.
    i meant japanese tech is like in the middle tier. getting ass trumped by US&Germany while undercut by taiwan,korea and china. labor cost is outta this world. just naked putting this pair in confidence.
  2. Retief


    You're shorting JPY using puts?

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  3. yeah i am shorting JPY using puts but for every 20K i put for 1K premium on this strat.
    btw, Japan has no natrual resources unlike USA got some massive farm land going on.
  4. Retief


    You know what they say: the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. Too me, it's look like you got the position backwards, USD/JPY should have been a chronic short since sometime in 2007. I've been wondering about the strength of JPY for a long time. I think there are two reasons:

    (1) China has been buying Japanese bonds. Japan doesn't have to rely upon it's citizens to buy all of its bonds; and

    (2) Japanese exports to Asia have dramatically increased, while Japanese exports to the US have decreased. The Asians pay in JPY, while the Americans paid in USD for the exports received.
  5. yeah i see saw the chart where china has been jacking up its trade with japan to some 150 billion worth of USD. but still tho. taiwan and other asian labors are dirty cheap compared to theirs. it makes no no sense why they can enjoy a better living standard with no competitive edges
    i always put OTM options so i have some cushsions

  6. Retief


    Are you sure the standard of living is better in Japan than in Taiwan? Are you sure Japan has no competitive edges?
  7. The chart is very bullish for the yen . . . when the price action and the sentiment are at odds, go with the chart. Japan could be the only island of stability in a world of high spending and weak exports (the US) and political indecision (Euro). And as a funding currency, it would benefit from weak commodities.
  8. bullish as it is. I am talking about writing OTM monthly puts for the next 10~20 years(couple with adjustments if shit hit the fan)
  9. Retief


    Why would you do that? The trend is your friend until it ends. Why not wait until you see some cracks in the trend and then short? What is your criteria for deciding when you're wrong? If you maintain a short for ten years and it doesn't pay off, it's probably waaaay past time to close the position.
  10. 83% of FXCM customers are short the yen . . . For some reason, I don't think Soros trades at FXCM at 100-1 leverage on his free $25 starter account.

    So you're short puts . . . until something happens. I'd rather be long puts . . . in case something happens.
    #10     Jul 29, 2010