Maybe your right, Murray. Maybe going long oil would be profitable here. I always think in macroterms, and can't trade my way out of a paper bag. I honestly believe a few, select people can make money consistently trading, whether its natty, stocks or oil, and the rest of us without that exceptional talent will only drive ourselves to bankruptcy, insanity or both. But maybe short @50 and long @30, as someone said, is 'proper,' at least for a while. Or maybe the cluster that is the global economy takes out $25 soon. Only the brave or foolish brave these waters.
Are we talking long-term trade here? This level is nothing but a psychological support level. The question investors are trying to answer is: Is oil going to re-enter the range it has been in for the last decades, or is the upper resistence of the range going to act as support.
Draw a trendline from your late 1998 low to your late 2001 low, you will see where we have bounced off of twice now.
And what about a log chart (which is how institutional investors draw long term charts)? Then your TL doesn't work. That's why I stick with horizontal S/R.