Is Trying to Pick Bottom In Crude In Terrible Global Economy Like Chasing The Dragon?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by ByLoSellHi, Jan 26, 2009.

  1. How does that work?

    Do people just say, "well, the economy sure sucks and looks like it's going to get a whole lot worse as the jobs losses snowball, but oil sure has dropped a lot, so f!$ck it, I'm going long!"
  2. I have my standards. If I were ever to try and pick a bottom, it would have to be firm and bouncy...
  3. I don't think the real traders here are trying to predict a bottom, only reading the tape and techs. Market is acting like it has exhausted itself on the downside for the moment, and may have a larger correction within a continued bear market. looking at the charts and the action on extremely large builds, I personally and several others here are buyers for a trade, that is all. If we are wrong, we stop out and wait for another trade.
  4. I'm not saying anything about whether or not it's a good idea, but I really don't see how it's like smoking opiates through a straw. Not even a little bit.
  5. I made close to 5 points on USO with 1.5 of risk...

    am I crazy?
  6. Ditto. Perfectly worded.
  7. I'm not sure at all if crude prices and worldwide GDP growth are at all correlated, even if accounting for a time lag. Anybody read any research on this?
  8. You can bet your last red cent that the ultra-high prices we experienced can partially be blamed for the shitstorm we are in, not THE cause, but was a major catalyst.
  9. FWIW, this is a very rational response to what was an admittedly antagonistic thread title I intentionally planted.

    I thought I saw a quip from a report somewhere talking about the cost to the world economy with each incremental $1 rise in crude prices somewhere, so I'd suspect that the losers outweigh the winners on a correlative chart with rising oil prices...then there's the whole essential 'tax' on global consumers on a relatively inflexible good (but entirely inflexible, as we learned, as people cut way back).
  10. ==================
    Buy lowS , higher lows;

    Well it may be a bearish sign, when Citigroup commodity co buys a tanker full of oil.;
    when MS & Royal Dutch Shell do[did] it , maybe bullish.

    Not sure any elites know oil trading/fundamentals as Royal Dutch does,; possible , but not likely.................................................................

    And if USO, & crude got cut in half[again], still looks now like a good risk/reward for a medium or long term trade.

    Not sure what ''dropped a lot means'' means as you rightly imply;
    but measured in many ways, longs have been attractive.

    As far as how it works, not a prediction;
    more so on technicals , psychology & looking ahead than fundamentals.
    #10     Jan 26, 2009