Is trend following limited to buying new highs and selling new lows?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by OPC, Jul 12, 2003.

  1. OPC


    The Turtle philosophy seems to be based only on buying new highs and selling new lows, as a follow-up to the Donchian System for mechanical trading.

    I also notice they don't mention central tendency and volatility expansion/contraction cycles in their website, which seems to be more popular among discretionary traders.

    In short, they claim that their method is the only one compatible with trend following. Everything else, including profit targets or working with risk/reward ratios, is supposed to be prediction and, therefore, a fundamental error.

    What do you think about that?
  2. As an Aspiring Turtle
    I Agree
  3. gms


    I don't think that's what they are claiming, from my read. I don't believe any of the original turtles make that particular cliam either. BTW, trend following isn't limited to entering on new highs, it can equally be shorting on lows as well.

    Concerning whatever you think you have happened to have read that implies "the only way" regarding trend trading, have you established some sort of relevancy to other's supposed claims about trend trading vs actual trend trading?
  4. Self Actualized Turtles, please respond
    The Gauntlet had been thrown
    The Philosophy has been challenged
  5. OPC



    They also claim that they use only reactive indicators. Does anyone know of a proactive indicator, such as one that goes ahead of price? I would like to incorporate that into my tools.
  6. A proactive indicator would nullify the entirety of our Great Turtle Philosophy as it is based on the assumption that future price can be possibly predicted by an indicator.

    We can only see and learn from the past.
    When you look at the stars, or anything for that manner, you can only see the ghost of the past.
  7. OPC


    No, I don't. I was just curious to know something about the hedge funds mechanical systems' modus operandi.

    Do you know of Lee Gauss trading system? He's been marketing his system (probably to attract investors and set up a fund) and it seems to be a good one. It sounds like he's working with price channel breakouts along with mathematical models to calculate cyclic bottoms and tops. As a matter of fact, his calculations are pretty accurate. No holy grail, but pretty accurate.
  8. There is no proactive indicator....

    All indicator and/or analysis are derived from what the market did. How do you base an indicator that bases on what the market didn't do...

    Only thing would be an indicator based what you "think" the market will do. But the basis of what you "think" comes from what the market did so doesn't really make a difference.
  9. bubba7


    Can you process with Boolean Algebra equations that involve either and both price and volume?
  10. IN2WIN


    I agree, but do so on a very small time frames, use ONLY a 5-min chart.

    So far it has paid off very well. As a matter of fact, I make it my business to avoid knowing anything about " cycles. (and) Predicting trends ...".

    The less informed I am, the easier it is to remain unbiased and simply follow a very profitable system.

    I highly recommend it.

    An added bonus; I have no homework once the market closes - it makes the rest of my time totally free to enjoy the the style those profits helped create.
    #10     Jul 12, 2003