I agree that it is important not to complicate. However, a coordinated effort on the parts of important traders against the retail trader is unlikely. Their more important concern is to outperform each other. In this particular example, important buyers have come in at a certain level and of course expect a following, that is they expect price to rise. There may be a test of this level, and the patient will wait it out. However, if those buyers do not attract a following, there is nothing to prompt a rise in price, and they will most likely decide to withdraw and try again at some other level. This has less to do with pulling rugs or slipping stops and more to do with finding value.
You'd think that, they might tell you that, but no there interested in the easy money, why play with against other Pro's when you can join forces and take the easy money. Think of trading as water pressure. Market is in a downtrend, mainly M1 but visible on all TF's So the water pressure is mainly down. Retail will try to pick a bottom, Pro's have backed off the pressure Retail will create a little run back up, as they jump on to get the turn Pro's like this as there selling there whatever to retail at a better price. If Retail manage to sell and take profits, then there are less losses in the pool for them to share. So when retail upward pressure starts slowing, Pro's increase there pressure. Retail get spooked, start selling, then you get a fast spike down and everyone who didn't get out in time gets there SL's hit and beyond as the spike is to fast to get them out. That's basically what the market is doing in repeat 100x's+++ per day, that's why when you pick a bottom, it moves your way the reverses hard, it's not luck, your playing against Pro's. All Pro's, Banks and the like, make BILLIONS, if there all pretty much except for the odd screw up making BILLIONS, where does this come from ?? RETAIL, Millions of us, losing little bits, trying to beat this game, getting suckered into making the same mistakes over and over again, which I'm sure you can relate to, omg why does it always do X against me, it's because there playing you, luck doesn't exist. So to truely beat the game, learn to see the Pro's and the Retail action and back the Pro's never the Retail.
Patience, Risk Control, and Timing are the 3 keys to Trading in my opinion. I highly doubt it's Pro against Retail. Because Retail are not that huge compared to Pro. More likely it's Pro against other Pro that generate price action.
We are small, but there are 1000's of Pro's with huge money, and MILLIONS of Retail with little bits of money that all add up, to supporting all of the Pro's ( not talking Retail Pro's, talking BIG BOYS ) Soon as you get your head around and start seeing this action live, your trading will improve hugely.
You are assuming conspiracy on the part of important money (institutions, etc). This is unlikely. As for retail being suckered into anything, that requires no effort at all since retail is unprepared, undisciplined, and trades more or less randomly. The key is to determine what important money is doing and trade with it, not against it. Trying to outmaneuver important money is not likely to be a successful approach.
Have a hunt, not something I'd trust, Pro's aren't going to produce a document stating that they basically live off Retail, that would drive retail away, but where else can there money logically come from ?? Only Losers are 99% of Retail on mass, sadly!! Don't trade like Retail if you want a shot!
No out maneuver Retail, not the Pro's, got to understand how the Pro's trade, understand those little spikes you jump on in fear of missing a turn is a retail trap and not fall for traps. Go along with the Pro's make money, go along with Retail and lose, your call.
Problem is even if true, you really cannot tell what the Pro is doing in real time. If you actually do that, kudos to you. I've never figured that out. There are many fake and traps I see in the market. But at the end of the day I have no idea if it's Pro causing it. More important does it really matter? All I really know is that it exist and every trade has the potential to become a loser. Which is why I am getting serious with Risk Control. So much profit getting eaten up with poor RC management. :sigh:
Never going to know for certain, never going to not take the odd loser. Basically, do the opposite of what you'd normally, cause your retail. RC with bad trades = death by a 1000nd cuts, been there, need to risk 5 pts say for the potential of 10+ and try to avoid weaker setups.