Is trading Probabilistic or Deterministic ?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by ^^^^^^, May 3, 2007.

  1. ^^^^^^


    Probabilistic: Price action is best characterized by formulating a probability function to describe various future outcomes.

    Deterministic: Future price action is determined by the interaction of various observable variables.

    A trader's whole approach to decision making and taking action in the market is dependant upon his acceptance of one or the other views of the market as set forth above.

    I believe these two opposing views account for the animosity between some ET posters.

    Just throwing it out for discussion.......
  2. Many traders believe that the best trades are taken with a high probability of success when all the "ducks line up in a row".

    So when the variables setup for a good trade (point B), there is a high probability of it succeeding (point A).

  3. wave


    Deterministic, probability is just a scoring mechanism for a deteministic event. Different deterministic events will have differring probabilities of occurence.
  4. Neither.

  5. wave


    The only egos that exist are in the folks who think they are smarter than the markets based on "their" "anal"ysis. It's the system that wins not you.
  6. wave


    Stupid1: Hey Im long what do you think?
    Ego1: Don't worry about it your good, the market should shoot up from here, the bulls are in control.

  7. ^^^^^^


    Deterministic refers to those who believe that certain variables combine to give a perfect indication of a future outcome, though they would not agree that they are "predicting".

    Probabilistic refers to those who are unsure of a particular future outcome, but recognize that several possibilities exist.