Most people do not even bother to think about a purpose behind anything and take what is offered as a given just because it is written or portrayed. This is a very big mistake to make in life and more so in trading. "Is Trading Just Guessing?" Yes, of course it is as you have no idea what is going to happen next as soon as you enter a trade, no matter how many try and convince you otherwise. Does this really matter in relation to making money trading. No, it does not, not one little bit. "Why does it not matter, in relation to making money, that trading is just a guess on what might happen next"
================= Nice points; and add . Does it make a difference if a guess is educated?? Or does it make a diffrence if some study trends for 10 +YEARS. Well frankly ,,it can make a big differnce; but thats a probibility,,Not a guess,,,NOT a prediction. Another question To origional poster .Are you aware much money has been made with low probability hit rates?????{in other word some may not even call that ''good guessing/educated guessing '''} 'LOL,but true.
back in 1990 when people still subscribed to the Wall Street Journal, all you needed was a good set of darts.
hahaha, all man that was good... I once started out betting football games one time with $50 and turned it into $2,000. This is what I did to win, figure out what I thought I would really think would win a game, but do oppostite of that after thinking it through. I won in streaks and some time I had re reverse the psychology because of some intuition. Unbelievable this taught me one serious thing, that there is no logic and totally irrational because we do not make the Universe. You know how I lost it simply by going back and being rational about how I think things happen or should happen. This shows that nothing can be entirely in our control. The first thing is to forget what you know or what you think you know, and understand what the Universe design and very purpose is. This though is very hard because this is the true determinant that makes a trader successful.
After you go through understanding how markets operate, you recognize that betting is not necessary nor is predicitng necessary either. First you see light at the end of the tunnel. As you step out of the tunnel and your tunnel vision, you do "know that you know". The better way to have this be part of you is to have a fully differentiated mind. Football is not a big enough sample of life or something that represents extracting capital out of markets by participating. All there is is a Mobius strip that is rotating through a fixed crossection whose name is NOW. Half of its length is one color the other half is another color. Thus the cycle has two moments that count. Making money is just the simple task of having you capital "IN" the correct color all of the time. An ATS will allow you to HAVE this ability comprised of being able to "know that you know". By having a symmetric philosophy of history, you acquire "knowing that you know". (See Danto, Columbia University). NOW is a fulcrum whereby you can see into the past as well as you can see into the future. You could divide the Mobius strip into a number of parts. Do that. You start with two colors to demonstrate a cycle. This is looking at the money making variable. Think about more sensitivity. Figure out how to add this and still not viiolate the Universe you speak of. To have any more sensitivity, you must divide the parts you have minimally. That is the only requirement. This "means" you add another variable. To finish becoming a Universal mind that can use a symmetric philosphy of history (the movement of the Mobius belt from the future into the past), witness yourself adding a third variable. How do all of these combinations of three variables look? If only one thing can snap into place in your mind, you will never have to bet in market trading ever again. The combinations follow an order which is set by their relative frequency of change. The first variable you see as two colors. One lap allows each to be present. we called it Price. Now, add in the second variable; it has to have a frequency that is twice that of price for the two variable system to preserve its symmetry. The third human variable of markets works the same way; it is twice the frequency of the former frequency (or four times the frequency of the fundamental, Price). the parts can be numbered either in Binary or as base 10 numbers 0 through 7 inclusive. Can that snap into place in your mind? If it does then you always know "what must come next". Choosing the third variable is a hazard for most people because they do not know how markets work. All of this is how the "early exit" got invented by CW people. Doing PA is a part of CW. Notice the ratio of people who are just potential traders until their money runs out. PA people must bet and then they ultimately lose. When you get home free, it is the moment that you realize which way the count is going. Notice how the multiplication operator of computers is designed the same way.
Making money (the amount) means different things to different people. One can not expect to make $100K with just $1K. Most start off from the wrong viewpoint. Most do not care as most are just casual strollers. What is probable might not ever happen. What does happen is reality. What you get is a direct result of what you do. "What is the most important thing to know about trading"
Ah well, as no one is playing maybe this'll get the ball rolling. If a 1% average return per day can be achieved consistently then with compounding it would take 463 trading days to make $100k from $1k. Surely someone here is capable of 1% average rate of return consistently each day? If a 5% average return can be achieved consistently then it would take 95 days to make $100k, is anyone here capable of that performance? Its best to bet on the most probable outcome, but of course anything can happen at any time.