Is Trading Just Guessing?

it's more like betting on who and how much are they gonna bet on which horse.

 

Working with probability , yeah it's guessing but you can still check your odds if you keep the right kind of stats.

 

Can an ever changing target be assigned a probability on a consistent basis?

 

yes. trading is pretty much guessing. every trade can be right and wrong many times before closing a position.

 

Daytraders, particularly scalpers, constantly do it. It's second nature, almost an intuition when you've done hundreds of time

 

If you are guessing you are CREATING RISK, whereas a trader doing high probability trades is ASSUMING RISK, so you see there is a substantial difference.

 

THIS says it exactly!!

If you look at markets prices there are certain spots when certain price patterns are evidence of TYPICAL moves that are to occur next...NOT always but higher chances of something occuring. These price patterns as noted in technical analysis DO amount to a guess,...BUT AN EDUCATED HIGHER PROBABILITY guess. When these are properly identified then that is where the edge originates. Then proper money management keeps and expands upon that edge. If your setup is wrong you lose a little. If right you stay with it until it is no longer right... and hopefully make more than your losers.

 

Perfect. Ask John Paulson who did a lot of homework before going "all in" before the subprime debacle became front-page material.
That's the key....anticipation.
That being said, PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Paulson has now made a bad bet.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/has-john-paulson-lost-his-touch-09152011.html

 

I like the dogmatic way some people present their own views. How do you know there aren't people who experience precognition, consistently? Maybe there are.

 

Yeah sure, people also see ghosts all the time. They have documented it on TV, Ghost Hunters. Believe it, it's on TV.