Is Trading Just Guessing?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by macattack, Oct 7, 2011.

  1. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Quote from xiaodre:

    Guessing is not a great choice when you try to describe trading. A trade does not consist of an entry only. Are you guessing if and when you enter, guessing again if you move your stop to breakeven, and guessing again if you don't increase your target and let the trade hit your target (ie. you don't do anything)?
    Entry, trade management, money management: are these guesses that put together equal one bigger guess, or a series of guesses?
    The point is all of this is superfluous; it doesn't matter. What really happens is that you have a theory that you use to trade your market. And the market is a complex system whose moving parts you cannot calculate completely. Most of scientific thought is guesswork. It doesn't matter.
    If you break trading down to it's prerequiste parts, then you have a few aspects of trading that are in your control, and many aspects that are out of your control.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    you have posted the process for obtaining the solution.

    reading the sentences at the bottom is very close to the solution.

    By having all the parts in hand all you have to do is the proper assembly using Science as you recommend. The parts only fall into one category: fully defined parts.

    The solution is without flaws, anomalies or any missing parts.

    As a consequence, as you say, you can plan on a perfect relationship between the entry and its exit.

    This is also an unfolding process.

    Some of the posts here have very high conviction. But they still do not express reality.

    Somewhere in the series of posts there is a statement that this topic has been addressed before.

    A nice topic is "Putting the Pieces Together". A system of how the market works, results. Trading to take the full offer is a lot of fun.
     
    #171     Aug 7, 2012
  2. I believe the real control a trader has is to obey what his partner tells him to do.

    It is not a quick rapid anything or other; it is a smooth flawless process whithout anomalies. Emotions are always there and they are comfortable supportive and confidence building.

    You posts seem to have a theme that is subjunctive for some reason. Care to explain your troubles of problems?

    No one trades or participates in the future, all that is available is the present.
     
    #172     Aug 7, 2012
  3. wildchild

    wildchild

    Yes, and most folks on ET guess wrong.
     
    #173     Sep 17, 2012
  4. (knocking on monitor)
    How in hell can you see my screen from inside there?
    :cool:
     
    #174     Sep 17, 2012
  5. Redneck

    Redneck

    And specifically what the hell is so bad about being wrong

    I count myself as one of those who is wrong regularly

    ===========================

    Being wrong isn’t the issue

    Being wrong and not willing to admit…, and then change it – is

    ====================

    ppfffftttt

    RN



     
    #175     Sep 18, 2012
  6. SatMir

    SatMir

    Is Trading Just Guessing?

    Sometimes,when i`m lazy..
     
    #176     Sep 18, 2012
  7. It's pretty much guessing on a crude level. Yes, it's just a guess and I just busted another rhyme. So what? What's your point? Are you going to point out that trading is gambling next?
     
    #177     Sep 23, 2012
  8. Good Guess, I guess.
     
    #178     Sep 23, 2012
  9. Newex

    Newex

    Betting on a roulette is a guess .

    But if you calculate the time every number has won and you calculate the statistical odds that a specific number will win its not guessing but a prediction based on mathematics and statistics .

    to make the long story long it all depend on HOW you are trading .

    If you are betting based on gut feeling its guessing alright , if you rely on fundamentals and charts its a prediction.

    Trading is not investing but its not JUST guessing.
     
    #179     Nov 1, 2012
  10. Aas

    Aas

    Is Trading Just Guessing?
    If you bet on a lotto you pick X amount of numbers and your numbers come up you will win. You are guessing.
    If you bet on trading you pick a price level to enter the market and if the price moves in your favor you will win. You are guessing.
    What is the main difference between the two ways of guessing?
     
    #180     Nov 3, 2012