Is Trading Just Guessing?

Not that simple.

The MIT guy/gal is better than the high school grad. Big differences.

e.g. I noticed that the guy/gal from MIT wipes his/her ass better than the high school grad. i.e. smellless ass.

not sure why. never thought about it. maybe smarter so optimized the method of ass wiping? better ass wiping discipline? willing to go the extra mile in wiping that ass?

It's also more fun to work with the MIT guy/gal.

From employer standpoint, MIT grads are less riskier than the h.s. grad, all other factors being equal.

Trading is gambling.

 

Trading is just tracing chasing and amazing...

 

I don't agree with you. We discussed this subject long time ago and I'll just post my answer here in quote tags to prevent duplicate content.

 

Good post, ashantt

 

Okay. No problem. I don't think it matters much who is right.

One definition of gambling could define trading.

 

it is a guessing game.

someone guesses a little better, some worse. most can guess well if they are not in the market.but when they are in the market, their "get richer or fear of losing" make their guess go astray, that is why 90% lose.

since trading is just common sense. something goes up must go down, but something goes down not really go up.

buy low and sell high. sell high and buy low.

 

Unless your definition of accuracy is wildly different than my concept of accuracy.

I'd have to say that's one silliest things I've seen proposed on ET.

I myself must be a heretic and believe set-ups are at best a guess and a required psychological crutch bordering on superstition and OCD at worst.
Of course having that belief individually may be adaptive for you as a trader.
Belief in "control" of future market behavior is very appealing.



Whereas the real control a trader has is in risk mgmt and exits.

 

Highly robust models are not a crutch. If you've been around probabilities and mathematics for long enough, you'll know there is no crutch when developing trading systems if they're highly robust.

Robust is multithousand percent returns with less than 50% drawdowns.

 

Thanks but I'm not talking about paper trading historical data.

 

Anything you can backtest and automate can be immediately applied to the market.

If you don't do this, you are planning to lose, and will be completely clueless about the risks of your trading. Without knowing risks there can be no reward, and many traders that don't devote any time to this will fail automatically.