Is Trading Just Guessing?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by macattack, Oct 7, 2011.

  1. Trading is making an intelligent, educated guess based on a set of rules with a known probability of success.
     
    #121     Feb 29, 2012
  2. and guessing is?
     
    #122     Feb 29, 2012
  3. ocean5

    ocean5

    In a pure debating that is not backed with the real knowledge and experience you are usually nowhere.Truth will never appear in a pure kitchen debating.You are out after the pure debating with the same things in your mind you came in.

    Thank you.
     
    #123     Feb 29, 2012
  4. And here is the reality: By the time one of these hypothesis is falsified it is too late to do anything. If you entered under one set of assumptions and waiting fr the market to confirm or invalidate, - it will cost you to find out. The cost is imposed by the market itself in the form of the loss the trader will experience.

    the trouble with you, the likes of you, the hersheys and todds of the world is that none of you has ever traded or even watched the market

    if you did, you would immediately notice that the approach you are describing is useless to extract the market offer

    I challenge you to monitor the market with what you described in mind and see for yourself.

    Static charts are useless for that. I don't know why you people posted those with supposedly tradable gaussians for years, when it is obvious that not a single PFC posted by todd correctly anticipated the market action on the next day after degapping.

    Stop wasting your time. hershey is a quack
     
    #124     Feb 29, 2012
  5. yeah, but we're not debating, we're just talking.

    Do you get in a lot of fights at bars?
     
    #125     Feb 29, 2012
  6. elsewhere paddler alludes childishly to the use of finer tools to counter this problem, he probably read to much makosgu's nonsense

    since fractals fail, one can't anticipate the market correctly and by adjusting one has to act within certain limitations regardless of resoluton

    hense are the losses that hershey trader always esxperience

    it is rather pitiful that after so many years you are still following the old fart when it is quite obvious that both he and todd are wrong
     
    #126     Feb 29, 2012
  7. It's the same as I said above, just in an elaborate way. :)
     
    #127     Feb 29, 2012
  8. Oh good, the possibility of civil discussion on the difficulties in "differentiating". You raise some valid points about your experience with the method - believe me I understand the frustrations. Holding and hoping are not recommended - the trade should go your way almost immediately...

    How else could one logically approach a problem such as the market without testing for 2 contradictory hypotheses? I suppose you could guess or just wing it.

    There will be times where 2 hypotheses look equally plausible (possibly not to the expert) and a time when one of these hyps falls away (sooner than you realise, apparently). When this occurs there is a profitable trade to be had. As this is not predicting, one has to monitor for the next bend in the road which is signalled in advance.

    Oh dear. Civil discussion terminated.
     
    #128     Mar 1, 2012
  9. ammo

    ammo

    guessing is that a bus,cab,extraterrestial,wont come out of the blue and run you down while crossing the street.simple,but the risk is always unknown,albeit small,so mathimaticaly the risk exists,so even miniscule,its still a bet/gamble,an absolute would be nature reoccuring among multiple species (plants/animals) that we will re create,eat,drink,shit ,exist until we don't..dont let math cloud your thinking ,there are very few absolutes in life..mathematicaly everything but nature is a gamble,and the nature argument can be debunked with math,but the overall summation never wavers
     
    #129     Mar 1, 2012
  10. ocean5

    ocean5

    ''think about this:

    Yes, always yes.

    In one word : yes.''

    ''yes''??? i thought you`d say ''the bookmark'' LOL!!!
     
    #130     Mar 1, 2012