trading is result of trial and error. we suck at forecasting. if we are correct, then its pure luck not skill. we only profit from luck because good traders know how to stay solvent long enough to wait for these unpredictable but violent events. what does taleb mean? that we are all just dumb lucks. can warren buffett be lucky over and over for all these years? is microsoft an accident? like google? i just feel a wave of nihlism while im reading nassim taleb's book.