Viewers, This was my first post on Elite Trader and I was going to leave it to run for longer but I am posting my final assessment after just 12,000 views. I posted this thread because: 1. A while back I was interested in making a lot of money and doing it ethically. I am completely unapologetic about this. In order to do this I decided that I would take an unconventional route and employ myself in the financial services industry mainly in London (at times I felt almost as if I was a corporate spy but I prefer to think of it as multi-year industry research). I worked for years in various firms and studied the industry from the inside out qualitatively and also through interviews and desk research. I learned valuable insights as to how to make money and a lot of it. However, my ethical value system constrained me from implementing most of the things I learned. 2. I felt I had an ethical responsibility to share some of my conclusions and felt it would be an idea to possibly write a book (although I would do this under another name) or perhaps convey my knowledge anonymously through a blog or social media. I planned to donate any proceeds to charity, This is because I had seen the sheer suffering, lost money, gambling addictions, miss-selling, damaged relationships and so on which retail clients experienced when they were ‘on the wrong side of the trade’ . The worst being, in my opinion, the loss of the most valuable commodity that these clients had….their time. I thought this forum might be a test as to how this book might be received. After posting a thread on this forum, I was shocked that, instead of receiving lots of questions asking me, for example: For advice as to what unethical tactics to avoid. Successful strategies to make money. Questions as to any case studies, examples or facts I may have gathered. …..I was bombarded with swearing, ad hominem attacks, conspiracy theories, labeled variously as a ‘loser’, ‘failure’ etc. Truly very very surprising. I had no agenda and was not selling anything, In fact, in once incident, one individual asked me to PM him, I sent him some guidance as to how to avoid being scammed by brokers (free of charge or agenda and just to help him). He immediately stabbed me in the back and publicly slandered me without even thanking me a few hours later. My Synthesis Broadly, my preliminary synthesis is that there are two general ‘themes’ into which participant behaviour can be categorized….In my opinion, they define success in trading (or any high-performance field for that matter). 1. Theme 1: Individuals who are ‘truth-based’. They make decisions based on evidence and facts. They are not afraid to confront difficult facts as they know that they help them make better decisions. Often, but not always, they accept and understand mathematics or hard sciences. Such individuals are prepared to work very hard in order to pursue their goals and dreams. They are not afraid to accept the difficulties/challenges of competition/adversity that they know they will encounter and try to overcome them. They often ‘study the game’ in order to succeed rather than impose their own idea of it on the world. 2. Theme 2: Individuals who are emotional weak and inherently intellectually (even physically) lazy. They are usually looking for a short-cut and are unprepared to do the necessary work to achieve their goals. In order to justify this, they often try to aggressively suppress evidence or facts as it is more comfortable for them psychologically that way. In many cases, they are manifesting signs of compulsive, addictive or delusional behaviour. A preliminary ‘acid test’ I used to identify such people (in the case of trading) is to ask them to provide a risk-adjusted P&L. An emotional, defensive or aggressive response indicated someone of the second ‘theme’ . Whereas, a ‘theme 1’ individual would have a different response. I have come to the conclusion that the majority (but by no means all) of the posters on ET are in the ‘second thread’ and therefore have no value. I have also come to the reluctant conclusion that they also should not be helped or any time wasted on them even to ‘protect them from themselves.’ I have also obtained also psychological insights which leave me to believe that: 1. They themselves do not want to trade profitably (i.e. in a quantifiable sense). 2. They know exactly what they have to do to produce quantifiable results and yet are not prepared to do it. 3. Rather than quantifiable results, they want and pursue emotional results or fantasy results. This is the true reward that they seek rather than a quantifiable one. The reason being, in my analysis, that such emotional or delusional results are easier to obtain and require less effort. I have also come to the conclusion that: 1. For the unethical, they represent a lucrative market segment. There is a very very strong argument indeed to take money out of the pockets of people of the ‘second thread’ and transfer it to pockets from where it will be better spent or invested as they are almost certain to lose it anyway. 2. A lot of very profitable companies and individuals do this currently (chop shops, brokers, education providers etc). 3. What is disturbing me a little is that, increasingly, following this forum, I am beginning to think that it would actually be ethical to do so whereas in the past I thought differently. Summary Regarding the issue of trading. I have come to the conclusion that: Trading can be a rewarding and highly profitable career or livelihood for a fraction of percent of individuals. Such individuals never follow the conventional retail day trading path 'sold' to such people but other ones (some of which I have outlined in this thread- elite universities,external resources, mathematical aptitude etc). I read an interesting thread on another forum yesterday with a completely different level of participant (more ‘Thread 1’ people). These were people who were prepared to educate themselves, work-hard (100 plus hour weeks), compete, network and hustle their way to success. This was just part of the equation, however, with employment at high level firms and being located in a major financial centre being others. Many of them fail, but some of them appeared to become very successful at trading. I think for people with such a mind-set and external resources then trading can indeed be very rewarding and lucrative career. However, this is not for everyone. On average, however, I still think that there are better ‘trades’ out there for the 99 % of other people who do not have this inner mindset (CPA, med school, investment banking, trade school, school teaching etc). Nothing here has changed my initial analysis. I will not be spending as much time on this forum. Please feel free to PM me if you have any questions.
Devoted to day-trading as Trotsky was devoted to revolution , and in the end very tiny group wins the rat race.
City, Analize any industry. Unethical things happen in all of them....Questionable things happen in all of them...but also most of them have good things that happen. In trading .....the exchanges are there as medium to facilitate buying/selling. Imagine if you had to run around from house to house asking people if they would buy your stock or futures contract and or sell you theirs. In stocks the specialist that was assigned to the orderly facilitation of buying and selling in a particular stock made the spread. But guess what? The specialist saw orders others couldn’t see. He could determine where the buying/selling pressures were heading. He was also allowed to trade his own account is my understanding. Was or is this fair? Is it a sort of insider info? Something he could take advantage of? But if you stop and think about it he had to see the whole picture to maintain the orderly flow of transactions, which was his primary job. And the exchanges have to maintain data...computers...and all that goes with being an exchange..so...yes they are gonna make money off data fees. Then on the Naz you had market makers and the games they played. However they took risks themselves to “make the market”. If you placed a market buy order they were obligated to execute it. They did not always make money. Remember the soes bandits? They found a way to take a slice out of the pie exploiting the inefficiencies of the Small Order Execution System. In hindsight one can see that these tactics were the fore-runners of the entire HFT’s industry. Then you got the “spread” the bread and butter of the MM’s when the market makers opened it up a little too much traders would slide in and take a slice out of the spread. It was great....then the markets went from fractions to decimals and ..well ..that ended that as the spread got too small. But it was fun and lucrative while it lasted. Not fun for the MM’s though..Even HTF’s assume risk...look at Knight and others who didn’t make it or suffered extreme loss. Then you got the brokers. They too assume risks. That is why they have all those forms you have to sign to open up an account. They are the link between the traders/investors and clearing houses and the exchanges. They make it possible for a trader to actually trade and make or lose money. LOL. Without them we could not trade. They get reimbursed by getting a commission from you and me. Again think about it! They have to make a living too. What if you had to get in your car drive to aunt Sally’s house 60 miles away to beg her to buy your stock and she says NO! Think of the time and gas and energy you will have spent. Now what if you could call her on your cell phone wouldn’t that be easier and more accommodating? Yes! But you are going to pay for that convenience by cell phone fees. But still overall it is better than driving to aunt Sally’s. Plus it is through brokers that you get access to many buyers and sellers. They get a fee for providing this service to us traders. The commission. Yes there are games played at that level and everyone is looking to skim a little here and there when they can ....to increase their profits but this is just part of it. The restaurant industry does the same. Ever notice how a new steakhouse opens up... serves good steaks at a decent price..attracts lots of customers..then suddenly the steaks are no longer as good because they went to serving a lower quality of meat to try and increase their profit. Is it immoral for the Real Estate industry to have brokers who make thousands off a buy or sell? Not 5.00 RT off an ES contract. Think about it! Is the real estate industry immoral? EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR A SLICE OF THE PIE! I am remodeling the house. Contracters leverage the fact that there is so much demand in our area for building that they name their price and dictate when they will come and do the job. Labor can be 3 and 4 times the cost of materials....supply and demand hard at work. One day it will flip on them and they will scramble to get any kind of work at practically any profit margin. Then will the clients be leveraging the “lack of work” environment to their advantage. Is this immoral? Or is this just capitalism/supply/demand...etc forces at work. This sort of thing happens in ALL industries and fields. It happens when you go to the gas pump and one day pay .25 more per gallon just on the news (rumor) of a possible conflict that “might” affect gas prices ...IF that conflict were to actually take place. See..everyone positions themselves for a bigger profit. Traders..investors...restaurants...pipeline industry...medical industry...pharma...the whole world is out to make more $$$$. We traders can look at it this way.... Prices are gonna move. Up or down or sideways. We can develop and hone strategies and tactics that will leverage those movements and put $$$ into our accounts. Yes there will be some who win and others who lose. Is that immoral or is that just competition in an environment of capitalism/supply/demand. It is a pitting of the wits against each other, to some degree, as we all try to figure out where the market is going. When you go to a grocery store and buy the same items at a cheaper price than the other supermarket around the corner...guess what...there are two winners and one loser. Does that make it immoral? Years ago when i was a teen i worked in a supermarket as a bag boy and stocker. My boss would go do a sort of corporate spying checking out the weekly prices of other local super markets then come back and “rig” our prices (as much as possible) to undercut his competition and gain customers who otherwise would have gone to them for their purchases. On top of that a weekly sales paper would be printed up..the audacity! Immoral? I went and had a ribeye steak the other night at a steakhouse. There were 3 winners. The steakhouse. Myself. The waitress (got a tip). There was a loser. Guess who it was? That is why we now see “eat mor chikin commercials” by the cows..ROFLMAO. The markets are highly competitive and the smartest and brighest minds are active there. I am getting old so I have to use strategies and tactics that circumvent what the youngsters are doing fresh out of college with all their degrees or they will clean my plow and eat my garden too. And sell my land out from under me if they could! So I have to outwit them in my own way. Is that immoral? I heard long ago “if you can’t stand the heat then get out of the kitchen”. I would say that stands true for the trading world. A friend of mine once told me “either sh?t or get off the pot” when i was struggling with what to do to make something work out in an endeavour that I had undertaken. My friend was highly successful in the same endeavour. Guess what? I chugged along in my own way until one day it all came together and now I have greatly surpassed my friend in the same endeavours albeit in a different environment than that when he uttered those words at me which at the time, were abit offensive. May you have success in your book endeavours and by all means make some $$$$$ and have fun while doing it! P.S. Most ad hominem attacks are just ET’s pitiful attempts at some sort of humor that gives us relief from the daily grind and pressures of trading. Don’t take them too personal even though some of them (made by others) I admit are pretty meanspirited, it seems. I usually try to keep my comments nonsensical or of the entertainment flavor...it acts as a way to pass time waiting for trades...we ET’ers can be a pitiful lot....... Anyway, good luck in your journey. Remember life is not fair. But it is to be lived.
This thread kept that nice "Stare at the multiple vehicle accident" thing going for it for a long time. Sadly, it seems to have been all cleaned up now. Waiting for the next big one. . .
Nice write up, you’ll do well as long as you apply the same intellectual rigor to your own biases and self-limiting beliefs. Good fortune to you!
You asking for trading records here as your first time on ET is like a guy bumping into me on the street and demanding to see my tax returns, if I say "go away, you clown" you will call it an emotional response. I'd call it a rational response. It's clear that you like writing long essays though, maybe seek a career as some sort of writer.
Statistically speaking, becoming a trader is a terrible endeavor. So is becoming an athlete, singer, actor, etc. Even within the realm of more typical professions, there is the statistical case for being a service person (such as medical service people known as 'doctors') or middle man (sales person) vs. becoming a researcher, innovator, or entrepreneur. But the hunt for something greater than the predictable, daily grind and formulaic "Effort(skill) * #_of_hours = money" drives us to do abnormal hings. But it's also why the world looks different today than it did yesterday. Not saying that traders are changing the world or anything, but giving some rationale as to why we do what we do in SPITE of the low odds for success. Another thing to note is that achieving success as a trader is much like landing in America from the 3rd world or landing that sweet job. Once you're there, it's smooth sailing and previous (global) odds of success don't matter as much. So don't let global odds of success in trading cloud your judgement when it comes to actually making it. Your odds go up quite a bit if you find yourself in the right position or achieve the right skill level. In other words, it's not just pure luck. Should someone growing up in sub-saharan Africa not aspire and work toward trying to make it to America because it's statisticaly better for them to probably settle down and work for the local government? The answer is...it depends.
The problem is your argument was more self-serving than a true attempt to gather data for research/evaluation. You make an assessment based on your one sided evidence that successful retail trading isn't possible and a "bad trade" compared to other professions, and thus, shouldn't be pursued. You act surprised at the wave of negative responses you receive when you KNOWINGLY and INTENTIONALLY decided to post an anti-trading post on a board dedicated mostly retail traders. You could have found another site dedicated to long term investing or even trading skeptics where you would have been better received, but you choose to post to a site guaranteed to be full of people opposed to your viewpoint. Getting a visceral negative response is no more surprising than if you visited an "I Love Florida" forum and made a case that due to increasing hurricanes and sinkhole formations, living in Florida is a losing proposition and folks that stay there are delusional, then take offense when your basic feedback is if you don't like Florida, stay the hell out. You knew you'd get a large negative response and posted PRECISELY for that - it's nothing new. It's the quick and dirty way to get attention. Next your premise that other "maverick type" of occupations are superior is flawed. You took the time to list problems with those who pursue trading and conveniently ignored the difficulties with the other occupations. Example- take owning a business, being a star in sports or Hollywood. For every successful one you see that is accumulating great wealth, there are a vast majority more that fail or live marginally at best. Businesses have to deal with regulations that favor prior entrenched companies, corrupted or inept officials/regulators that force you to learn how to play the game, and then avoid being stepped on by the larger firms if they take notice of you, and all this while having to carefully navigate social media to not create bad press. Sports stars and actors not only have to be extremely talented, but they need to know the right connections and the spaces for top tier folks is limited by the number of sports teams or big budget movies produced. You also have a short career clock where your chances for success drop dramatically as one closes in on age 40. Working the standard 9-5 is not such a great deal either- there are only a limited number of executive positions, most places are poisoned by office politics and you also have an age clock ticking. I gave you a prime example of published successful trading- Renaissance Medallion Fund, and your response was telling. You claimed not to know much about the company and casually dismissed their impressive return citing the lower returns of their other funds. Unless you believe Medallion is a fraud, your quick dismissal shows you have no intention of being unbiased and your conclusion was already set. Trading is one of the few industries that is incredibly difficult, but is closer to a true meritocracy than the other professions where you don't have to deal with office politics, back stabbers, and credit stealers. You will go as far as your talent takes you. If you're no good at it- you move on- simple as that. Or I suppose, one can then start arguing the case that trading is a fraud and a losing game for all but Ivy League quants to make one feel better- but that is clearly seen by all as a case of sour grapes. There will always be people attempting to do great things that only a smaller percentage will succeed at, and there will be folks like you trying to make the case that they should never be attempted because of those difficulties and high rates of failure- likely due to many of them having failed at the task or being afraid to try and now seek to justify themselves.