I understand, I imagine this plays a big part in reducing the noise on your smaller timeframe chart and an extra confirmation for the setup. Makes sense and thanks.
I have a flight to catch so I'll make it quick. Some light reading regarding survivorship bias. http://abwinsights.com/2015/03/26/hedge-fund-survivor-bias https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-hedge-funds-are-like-the-undead https://www.cbsnews.com/news/5-reasons-you-should-avoid-hedge-funds/ https://bizwest.com/2016/02/05/funds-survivorship-bias-worse-than-you-think/ A few years old but I am sure you will find more articles.
He lost all of his clients money. Happens all the time. But still got paid. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015...nths-tells-investors-he-sorry-overzealousness Another example. Hundreds of funds shut annually, there is a high churn rate
OK, at an airport...The point I am making is that to win you have to be on the right side of a risk/reward ratio. I actually like the analogy given by a previous poster of the trader 'riding a jetski through a slalom.' In my world, assuming it was a race, I would try to: 1 Rent the jetski to the rider 2 Own the slalom or at least a piece of equity in it (ideally own a diversified portfolio of equity in many slaloms around the world) 4 Own a business fixing jetskis- ideally located near the slalom 5 Sell jetski riding lessons- no risk 6 Health insurance and medical care when , inevitably the jetski rider has an accident 7 Put my advertising on the jetski 8 Finance the slalom- ideally with printed or tax-payer money 9 etc The last thing I would do is ride that darn dangerous jetski...I could sink or drown...and what would my reward be? What a moronic idea.....If I owned the slalom, having a rider hit another rider and drown (statistically probable) might actually increase my profits if I sold the rights to the incident to a TV station. No downside that I can see in that trade. I would be incentivized to get them to ride ever more dangerously.I would increase profits by running more races. If I was Warren Buffet...I would buy every such slalom in the USA and control a monopoly...as part of a diversified portfolio. The top traders I studied were never riding the jetski. Despite that ...a lot of retail traders look up to them and believe that they too can be as successful as they are. They never understood what made them successful was usually not riding the jetski in the first place. The 'feel good' gurus will never tell them this.
As you don't know the difference between a trader or the nature of trading and managing a fund, renting or repairing jet ski's might suit you.
It will increase your chances only if this whole mindset mirrors yourself. The fact that a lot of viewers here do not know against whom they will compete does not preserve them from being successful from day one. To maintain this success will require long work, study, adjusting oneself to the market flow. In any event, the market, regulated market, will take care of ones failure and success almost in proportion with ego dominator and devotion. You can not drive a car if you think that all drivers are Formula One pilots with the intention to put you in car accident, you can not ski if you think about all who died while skiing. Your approach is probably very helpful for people of your type. But there are those who are taking risks, starting with little and going up. Look on the competitions that CME groups are organizing - it is happening over and over.
You’re doing a great job at arguing for your limitations. Given the title of your thread, you are indeed right. Congrats on saving time and money on something that is not for you. You have a plan, now go work your plan!
I've been on ET over 10 years and I observe different levels of intelligence. There is a thread in progress now, "Watch a prop trader swinging $100,00+ days"the OP is an ET sponsor. The thread is up to 20 pages now and this thread typifies how many ET posters, when they don't understand something take on aggressive confrontational stances, attack first even though they are clueless rather than ask polite questions. What in effect the result produces is people who know their stuff just don't bother to contribute, well many wont. Unfortunately social media seems to bring the great unwashed out onto the streets where they love to witness a scrap or a lynching. I admire people who defend their knowledge, however it seems to encourage the braying hounds even more as is the case with this thread and the one I mentioned. On weekends it's even worse, that's when the real rabble arrive.