If you believe that the market is randomly moving about... Well you get the idea.. Please vote now. ES
If there was a frame of Buy Stop and Sell Stop orders around a price quote at any given moment and timeframe could you say that the trader does not know which one might be filled and does not know the outcome of the direction he will be committed to?... but he could be profitable. Is this trader "Not Gambling" As we post...I made money... If trading is easy money...Is it "Not Gambling" ? ES
If one can measure time and price and formulate an outcome in Poker, would the casinos go broke? Why then is trading any different? Lets say we are all competing against one another, can we all be winners at any given moment? What would determine that? Can a trader be lucky...and if he is lucky was he "Not Gambling"... ES
kiwi is still asking himself..."how the Hell did Electric know that the EUR/GBP would do that? He must be lucky... ES P.S. These posts are timestamped. The Casino is kicking Electric out as we speak.
Please vote. ☺ What is an edge? Does it last forever? Can a trader transition to "Not Gambling" and what would determine that? Would this change any facts about trading? Is trading "fickle"...? ? ? Can a trader with an "edge" lose money? Does that mean that he was "not Gambling" ? Can one trader tell if another trader is "Not Gambling" ? ES
Are there several ways to "Not Gamble" ? What are they? Are there keys to the Holy Grail"? Do you drive a Chevy or a Ford? ...ahhh perhaps an import? Perhaps a Chevy or a Ford is an import to you...definitions can be different. Can an outcome be defined? ES P.S. By the way if you have not voted...Please do...what say you?
So, to be somewhat formal about it, I went to dictionary.com and looked up "gambling": <i>to stake or risk money, or anything of value, on the outcome of something involving chance</i> Going by that alone, I'd have to consider any money risked in a financial market a gamble (trading, investing, etc), with the possible exception of some forms of arbitrage where the outcome is basically guaranteed. The definition is a slippery slope, because in the "unbounded" sense, you could claim the element of "chance" in just about anything and, thus, call many potential decisions gambles (eg: the decision to commute to work today, let alone the decision to pursue career X). But, obviously, most people aren't going to claim the income they earn from their careers on the "gambling" line of their tax returns, and that goes for traders and investors, as well. So, at least at tax time, the definition narrows a bit. What isn't mentioned in that definition is whether the expectancy is fixed to favor one of the two wagerers (thinking slot machines, most casino table games), or whether the expectancy can shift over time between the wagerers due to learning, skill, etc (poker, trading). When you think about a casino, we tend to think of the "gamblers" as the casino's customers... not the casino itself... because in most games, the casino's expectancy is fixed positive (exception might be some blackjack games w/ skilled players, etc). For example, I'm going to assume that casinos don't report their income from slot machines and table games on the "gambling" line on their tax returns (hence the notion that if your expectancy is well-known to be positive, at least the IRS might not consider it gambling). My guess is most of these points might have already been mentioned somewhere in the previous 160+ pages of this thread, so I apologize if I haven't said anything new.
Of course trading is gambling. The distinction to be made is whether the trader is a smart gambler or a foolish one.