A professional gambler plays the odds... ie: he uses a method that has an edge, he puts probability on his side... sound familiar? Of course it's gambling, doesn't matter if you are a consistent winner or loser, unless you can see the future with 100% accuracy then it must be deemed gambling Some of you try to make out that a consistent winner is not a gambler and a consistent loser is a gambler... rubbish! one of the gamblers is using an edge and one is not, but lets not gild the lily The losing trader is like a single toss of the coin, he cant predict it The winning trader knows there will be 50 heads and 50 tails over the next 100 tosses and doesn't care about a single toss BUT BOTH ARE GAMBLING
Thank you, exactly right. Reducing risk does not eliminate an uncertainty factor, it simply reduces it, lifting the odds in favor of the positive outcome. Trading is about deriving benefit and as long as the primary goal is to profit, there will always be risk present making trading linked to gambling. The majority voting for "not gambling" are mistaken.
Edge or not, by definition, the house still gambles. The house gambles with an edge, but gambles none-the-less. Using statistical probabilities in an effort to "become the house" in a trading environment is also gambling since the outcome of each trade (bet) is not known in advance. Just as the house knows they may lose any one bet, but over time (and given enough bets) the statistics (and the actual dollars) shift to their favor, so too with statistics and probabilities in trading, does a trader know any one bet (trade) might result in a loss, but given enough trades (and assuming the edge tested valid) the statistics (and the dollars) turn in their favor. No amount of semantics can change what placing a directional trade (based on probabilities) really is - gambling - since one cannot know the outcome in advance. It doesn't matter in the slightest what the overall outcome is. The house gambles as do the customers. The house simply gambles with an edge. Without a doubt, some edges and some highly profitable (and predictable) strategies exist which employ such methods. It is not my attempt to knock those systems, nor disparage those traders which employ them. However, strategies do exist which fall outside the realm of edges, gambling and statistical probability. Signals exist (within the market framework itself) which indicate future price direction. How long or to what duration such signals last depends on the context (current trend) in which the signal occurs. They occur in every market, and on every time frame (provided sufficient liquidity exists). I fully realize even posting the possibility of such signals existing often results in massive flame wars, off-topic insults and charges of fraud. I have neither drank the sacred Kool-aid, nor do I have anything to sell. I have no intent of engaging in such activities. However, if one knew Event A resulted in three possible outcomes 100% of the time, and each of those outcomes (1, 2 or 3) watched price move a little, a medium amount or a significant amount (feel free to insert your own definition of little, medium & significant) all in the same direction, would you still call it gambling? Of course you wouldn't. Well such events occur day after day, market after market. Now, do not take my word for it. For a moment, suspend your immediate (almost visceral) response to dismiss my post as utter bullshit and the ravings of a madman. Take a few minutes to see for yourself what exists outside the realm of "conventional wisdom" as preached so often by so many. I have posted on this subject quite frequently recently, and ES has a few links he can share if he finds the subject matter on topic (I don't wish to take his thread further into the probability of a flame war). However, take a moment and investigate for yourself the possibility of trading outside the box of probability and statistics. Others (some of whom have posted to this thread) have investigated for themselves, and have found unbelievable results. Good trading to you all. - Spydertrader
Hi ES, You keep repeating this notion that playing with house money is not gambling. This is akin to saying that if a gambler goes to casino and wins 10k, and plays only with the winning from thereon, he is not gambling. Obviously, he was gambling right from the start. If he is sure to make the 10k from the start, only then it is not gambling. Do you get it?
I know SpyderTrader has given me permission to publish, but I have a lot of work to do to make the SpyderHershey technique my own. I would need additional training from Jack and Spydertrader if I were to use this simple technique...and I would need several weeks/months of practice. The trouble is I have nothing unique to add to it...it seems perfect. I think SpyderTrader has done a fine Job in his Journals..I would need longer timeframes to trade with however as I work a full time job in the daytime. It is just another method to add to my arsenal...I do see an opening to use it in my Forex trading during the times I do NOT trade news, but again I have about a thousand questions to SpyderTrader to go... As SpyderTrader mentions if Gambling and its meaning is the "can" you wish to believe in...then so be it... Michael B.
Now I am going to tell you something from my heart... you guys...I know it corny, but I believe in what I am doing. Sometimes the senior traders in here seem rather abrupt and rude or maybe even abstract...... But I have discovered something about Mr. Hershey that he does not know that I know... He is a trader of 50 YEARS plus! We know that..but here is something: He makes a deal with you...If you take the responsibilty of learning what he teaches then you must share it...thats the deal... I do not know many TradeWarriors from the old school like this...but some things in life can be free.. Take it or leave it...do the time.... Trading can be "not gambling" and you can learn it..hang in there. There is no quick path or get rich quick gamble with trading...trading is far more serious than gaming...negotiating...bluffing...competing...etc... Good trading to all of you...each and every one of you ...no matter how you have voted...Because both votes are correct, you just need to choose. Michael B.
One more thing... I only trade for on reason now. I have definetly identified it. I trade to make money. The real traders out there...you know the Donald Trumps of Trading...whatever...the trade for the essence of efficiency...I only am efficient to make money ..that all thats it...thats the prize...that the goal...thats it... I have realized that I am half way through with life. my perspective has changed as I grow weaker...I am no longer going to take over the world...and yes I am going to die eventually... Do I gamble desperately?...foolishly...NO! Am I a pussy?...well try me?..I have traded many events in my life myself....I can pull the trigger as many of you have just like you do. Michael B.
I'm not quite sure I follow. If the technique is simple, then why the need for additional training and practice? You're not exactly starting from scratch, as you have been trading for some time now and are aware of the need for risk containment and discipline. Unless I am missing something, I would think that if a technique is simple, then it should be straightforward to employ. Of course, I know nothing about the Hershey method so I don't wish to speak out of turn. (I do have a problem with his lofty claims, however. But that is another matter which, as you will note, has been confined within the space of these parentheses.) ES, you're a good guy and I will take you at you word. Please keep us apprised of your progress using this method, both the good and the bad. As an aside, I can't believe you've managed to keep this thread alive for so long. You do realize, of course, that it has been going in circles for a while now, eh? The arguments are getting repetitive. The arguments are getting repetitive. The arguments are getting repetitive. Oh, and did I mention that the arguments are getting repetitive?
Thundy, Its all about the poll... Yes of course..I meant before I publish, I will get comfortable with it...even though it is simple... there is a responsibility from the author of it that is passed along, which being from the old school myself..I take deadly serious. I need to know...every nut and bolt needs to be tightened... I need to LIVE with it...and SpyderTrader may be stuck with me if I wake up tomorrow morning and except this responsibility...I need 24 hours to think about it... The trouble is that I am having so much fun here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=81740 But if I can make more that 5% a month then i might start this new method...or maybe add it...I wish I had a room full of traders or trustworthy robots...I have these crazy nightmares when I sleep ...traders would steal and robots would put me out of work. How does a private retail trader delegate trading when he has so many systems/methods/definitions that he cannot trade them all? I allowed an earlier thread from confused,not about this as I identified with him and he was not a spammer or a vendor...He was a trader... Michael B.