Gambling or Trading?? Horses or DJIA?? Racing punters may put as much research into their choice of horse as traders on the Dow, both will employ disciplined strategies for placing their bets/trades. However once the gambler has placed his bet he is entirely at the mercy of the horse and has to wait until the end of the race (assuming the horse gets off) for the result of the bet. On the other hand the trader can enter the market at any time and place numerous types of trade with all sorts of protection to stem losses or guarantee profits. And after the trade is active it can be totally managed depending on the progress. Not quite so much a gamble I think. So I'm on the side of the Trader ( but I do like the exitement of a good gamble occasionally) Good thread, enjoyed it, cheers.
The single thing that can make trading into gambling, or gambling into a business like trading is: A TESTED SYSTEM. Trading is gambling when the trader has no system ("discretionary" trading). Because you are taking risk without knowing whether you are more likely to succeed or to fail. Conversely, Gambling is a good, reliable business when you have a system that reliably predicts that you have a better chance of success than not. If you know you are likely to succeed, Gambling is a perfectly good business. Ask any casino owner. Therfore, starting a business without information indicating that success is more likely than not (=a tested system), is also Gambling. For example, if you open a restaurant or a retail shop, but fail to do cashflow projections, a business plan, survey potential customers and the like, you are Gambling. So the difference between any business and Gambling is having a system, or a plan, that has been tested and shown that it is likely to succeed. This thread reminds me of discussions regarding how to differentiate a hobby from a business. (Ans: profit)
Can one be a consistently, successful gambler? or would that depend on extenuating circumstances, system or no system... Can trading be "not gambling"? When you are gambling, are you trading? When a trader trades in a "not gambling" fashion, what would determine if he were lucky? profitability? If a trader has been consistently profitable for 10 years has his "luck" ran out and in fact he considers trading "not Gambling"?
After reading this thread, it seems that the reason people get over-wrought about trading being considered gambling is that most people believe gambling has a negative connotation, whereas operating a business does not, even though clearly both involve risk. I think whoever used the word "reckless" has the key. Reckless gambling is a bad thing. Carefully thought-out, well-considered, controlled and profitable gambling is admirable. Recklessly starting a business is gambling. A carefully thought-out, well-considered and likely-to-be profitable business venture is admirable. So: any trader who is profitable is not a gambler. Traders who have yet to be profitable are only gamblers if they do not have a serious plan that indicates they are likely to become profitable. Traders who are still working on their plan/strategies/system/testing are in the development stages of a business if hey are only paper-trading. They are gambling if they are trading real money before the plan exists.
Can a Trader be a natural Gambler? Is everybody able to identify with what Gambling is? Does a persons tolerance dictate when 'they cross the line" into gambling? When a person believes that trading is "not gambling" are they denying themselves opportunity?
Yes it is possible to be a consistently successful gambler. (Example: the dealer at any table in Las Vegas) Can trading be "not gambling"?[/QUOTE] Yes, discussed previously When you are gambling, are you trading?[/QUOTE] Yes, in a manner of speaking. It's a matter of to what items you assign value. What is the agreed-upon worth of 3 aces? What is the agreed-upon worth of a piece of paper printed to create a dollar bill? What is the agreed-upon worth of an option contract or a share certificate? When a trader trades in a "not gambling" fashion, what would determine if he were lucky? profitability? If a trader has been consistently profitable for 10 years has his "luck" ran out and in fact he considers trading "not Gambling"? [/QUOTE] Think of Tower Records. It was a good, consistently profitable business for many years. Then the world changed and their business model did not make sense anymore, so they are going out of business, with good reason. Their plan no longer works. Does that mean they were gambling? Of course not. Some businesses have a finite lifespan. By definition, CONSISTENT profits do not arise from luck. If they are consistent, then they are reasonably predictable and estimable based on the plan/system/strategy/business. It is for each individual to determine what length of testing is enough for them to risk real dollars on that plan. And when the plan is no longer working. The poll needs another answer choice along the lines of "it depends upon whether you approach it in a methodical manner."