I was poker pro online cash games, highly competitive, 100k/hands per month is needed to reduce the lucky part of the game. Poker is a skill game like trading, now I am day trader.
Out of Poker, Blackjack, and Day Trading, Blackjack is by far the easiest. That is not to say it is easy... just easier. You have to be quick with numbers and not forget the count. That much is obvious. But that isn't the hard part. You can develop this over say a hundred hours of sim time. The harder part is analyzing the house rules and incorporating them into your strategy. Different size shoes, (the number of decks shuffled together and treated as one), depth of play into the shoe before shuffling, and the actual rules of play that determine things like when you can split or double or where the dealer stands. It would appear that there is no psychology involved but actually there is. You have to get plenty of hands and when it is obvious that you are counting and counting well, you are outta there. Barred from Blackjack in that casino, and probably others nearby as well. A big pile of chips in front of you draws attention. So does a wide bet range. Or simply appearing to know what you are doing. Or appearing to pretend you don't know what you are doing. Dealers and Pit Bosses will often in slow times keep the count and compare their mental play to your actual play. If you give up a little it can reduce suspicion but of course that reduces your win rate. Greed and pride make you a splashy player. Unskilled players who are obvious counters will usually be allowed to play as long as they are losing or at least not winning big. The house eventually eats them up. The guy who spent 6 hours reading "Beat The Dealer" and practicing on his laptop is usually going to stubbornly stick to the tables like glue and he is welcome to keep dropping his dough as long as he likes. Weak counters no longer make money due to rules changes. The house will do what it must to retain an advantage. Too big an advantage scares away players. No advantage gives house money away. Poker is harder than Blackjack. Very very hard when there are strong players facing you. Not so hard when you are strong man at a weak table. But when stakes are high enough to actually grind out a living, they are high enough to draw pros to the table and then you got your work cut out for you. Those guys will suck up your chips like a vacuum cleaner if you aren't on their level and that takes a lot of hands, a lot of reading and study. I always won more than I lost but only because I managed my money and my losses properly. If I hit my stop loss I left the table. Weak players stay in to "win back" their money, and lose more. They let it get personal on a level that is counterproductive. They want revenge. Or they just know their luck is due for a change in the positive direction. I loved playing with a table full of those types but there would always be at least one tough player there who would single me out and seek to run me off the table so he could be the only wolf among the sheep. Usually I would leave, rather than turn the game into a head to head with a stronger player. As long as I walked away winners, I was fine with that. Pride or stubbornness would have kept me there but I had a couple of good mentors who taught me well. I could never have become a full time professional player. Maybe now I could. At the time I did not have the singleminded dedication for it and my natural talents were not enough to get me by without that dedication. I could clean up a weak table just fine, but finding those golden games without another strong player in attendance was rare. In a casino, forget it. If i found one really good (for me) game in a month I was doing good. Playing against pros will develop your game, no doubt about that, if you are able to keep your balance and analyze what is going on while your chip pile shrinks. Sometimes you will beat those guys in the short term. They don't mind. They know next time you face them, you are lunch. Until after grinding for years, if you have what it takes and you singlemindedly devote yourself to the game, you are one of them. Most guys don't have it in them. The best they can do is manage their losses and play cards as a sort of expensive hobby. Plenty of guys do that, playing in games where they are unlikely to walk away a winner, just for the challenge and the sheer thrill of it. The smart ones fight back hard, and manage risk and loss sensibly, if you can call a high expectation of dropping $500 a session sensible. But to those guys, it is worth it, apparently. They enjoy the game. A lot. They usually bring a lot more to the table than just their roll. I call them "gentlemen players". Trading for a living is probably almost as hard as playing cards for a living. Depends on your roll and your expectations. And how willing you are to learn the game in depth. You have to have much the same mindset as a good card player. You can't take it personal when you lose. You can't "win your money back". You have to manage your money so you live to trade another day instead of take a bad beat that puts you down until you recapitalize. You have to know when to walk away from the table. You have to know how to use the information available to increase your edge in the hand. I am retired now, and trading will only be a supplement to my income, not the single source of it. That makes me kinda happy cause I can see that trading full time for a good living is no more a sure thing than becoming a successful pro poker player. As a full time pro trader or player, you HAVE TO PLAY. Sure, you can skip a day or two, but if you don't play, you don't win. If it is your sole source of income, you must win, and win regularly. If you don't need to win, as long as you don't lose, you can stay out as long as it feel right to do so. No pressure. I can go in when it looks good, and go sailing or fishing or just drink beer all day when it doesn't. But I think I like trading better than poker, so there is that. It is a lot of fun and I don't mind admitting it.
Poker had different levels, so with hard work is not complicated to be a winner in levels below NL100, but for big money the game becomes more complex and a coach is needed. Trading is really hard and more difficult.
Excellent post. I really appreciate your perspectives. As an options trader, I can see the parallels between options and blackjack/poker. Like blackjack, the probability, structures and trends define positive expectancy. But unlike blackjack, the probability, structures and trends seem to change over time and are different for different underlying. I am spending more and more of my time drill down into the weeds to study options and see what affect their values. It is quite additive.
Trading is easiest, because you can use skill and are not playing against anyone. Poker is next because you are playing against someone, directly, and can hone a skill. Blackjack is hardest, because you have to count cards like Rain Man. 82, 82, 82.
??? You are playing against your counter party, whether it is the MM or someone else who is betting against your position.
K, see, I am a retail POS who is trading a few contracts. So who is this massive MM playing against my 2 contract position, when there are tens of millions of orders flowing through the ladder each day on something like a NQ future? You ever look at a price ladder? What goes on there is INSANE. There are TENS of millions of contract orders going on and off the order book. And I think I am low-balling that number.