+1 ------------ I do not gamble. I only make deals where i know i will make money. Its all about odds and how to manage risk in these. I can know that i make money with a trade, but i do not know how much exactly, but on average i know - thats all i need. More clearly: Its betting on high odds, while controlling the risk, while being sure to do not lose anything. Thats the difference to poker or black jack or other gambling games. In trading, when i am right the first part of the prediction, i cant lose anyhting aynmore.........and if i cant lose anything, profits will come from alone......... I do not gamble. I know what i do. Its all about statistics. Its not about experience, its only about statistics, with statistics man can predict everything. Never thought about how people predict the wheater. Wheate forecasting is your daily stochastic process result you see on your tv - never thought about what a beautiful work is into that ??? Stochastic is the most beautiful sience in the universe........its about predicting the odds of future happening....nostradamus can beg for kissing your ass, so bad is he in comparison to a stocastican master analyst, who only thinks in chances %. So how high are the % that you will make a coffee tomorrow after you got up ??? Could i bet on it, how much could i bet on it ??? I LOVE STATISTICS. I LOVE STOCHASTIC. I LOVE TRADING. GAMBLING IS FOR LOSERS. HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHHA
I, too, am a student of statistics. I know that I have a winning percentage at blackjack and trading, break even at poker (based on historicals, real money). If you're saying that, I agree. If you saying you statistically think that every entry point will be a winner, because you have researched the trade, then I would question that. Sure, more winners than losers net, but not winning on every trade. Don
If it is so then you are not having the best possible edges. First goal in a trade is always, to not lose money. Second goal is to time the correct exit price time point. While this can be different, depending if you need the money in another trade or not. Also to stay to long in a trade is not smart, the best is to go in and out with the clear strong momentum moves and changes. Sometimes i get stopped out at my Trailing Stop, very rare but it happens. I also know when the odds are changing, and then i close the trade, and i made money, not what i have expected, but i made money, happens very rare, but it can happen. To hold on a trade, while you can clearly see, price goes against you is just stupid. The holy grail is to only allow yourself to be in the marketplace as long all the best odds are on your side. As soon they change to not 100% perfect anymore, go out of the market. Sometimes the trade would still have worked, yes mostly it would have, because sometimes i get also fake signals, or its sometimes difficult to say, what the current odds are, when the trade is in profits and price is in a trading range. In easy words, only be with the best odds, and give a fuck about everything else, a child would understand this.......... There are every day and week and month - new perfect trade opportunities, so there is no reason to hold on something what is not 100% perfect. I only lose money, if i did make a mistake. I know the markets behaviour on the lower timeframes as i make the trade, so i am watching it for the so called noise, what is nothing else than trades made on the lower timeframes. So i know and wait until all this resistance and support levels are have been tested and the main move keeps on rockin...... 9 of 10 trade i do, i make money, if i follow my rules to 100%. If not it becomes difficult to calculate the odds. The 1 of 10 trades, is just a possible emergency situation, what always can happen, because its about predicting the future. When i learned trading i have read the Market Wizards book and i never forget one sentence: "I only trade, when it is so easy, as picking up money from the floor. I just stretch my arm and pick it up." That always was my goal to achieve to create strategies who are selfullfilling prophecys. Once i am in a trade and i did all correct, i just watch how it makes me money, while i know what to do if something unusual should happen and i can get out of it, without a scratch. --------------------------------- Fazit: Statistically i make money on every trade, because statistics say so. But in reality only my discipline decides how many trades i make how much. Only if i follow my rules i will make money to 90% probability. In other words, the object of the game is to make real trades statistics into historical backtesting statistics, so that they match up perfectly together. Or, to make the real time results into the plan results. Know what i mean ? Thats all i wanna do....... And this is only possible with discipline. Thats why every successfull trader says discipline is the most important thing after all. Nothing beats perfect statistics and perfect discipline. Be prepared for the worst, expect the Best.
If you perform any experiment over and over again such that Pw * W - Pl * L - e > 0, you will eventually reduce your risk to 0. Pw - Probability of winning. W - size of win Pl - Probability of loss. L - size of loss e - expenses. "Statistically i make money on every trade, because statistics say so." - HateThe Risk Pw * W - Pl * L - e > 0 The above quote and equation essentially say the same thing in my humble opinion.