You made the assertion and you have not yet backed it up. Therefore, I assume you are guessing and have no idea.
Because back-testing an index futures strat proves only one thing. That what you have done in the past would have worked (or not worked) in the PAST. It means NOTHING for the FUTURE. The Fed war on inflation that started in Nov 2021, plus all the other variables since then, have completely changed the nature of the market's PA. What worked in 2017 and 2019 and 2021 do not work NOW. The PA has changed too much.
Thank you. I didn't want to type all that shit out because clearly this guy has no idea what he is doing.
Says a guy that holds a long ES position since markets started to tank, correct? Well that is ironic, is it not?
What makes you think I have to prove anything to you? Stats don’t lie. 80% of retail traders lose money, because they don’t know what they are doing. My last post here. This thread is a windup.
Maybe the point would be better served by bring in an options guy into the thread, like @BlueWaterSailor or @destriero . Surely Blue has noticed the change in market volatility that has evolved over the past few years, which would be reflected, I guess, in prices for options. I hate going out on a limb here because I don't know options, but figure that there has to have been a noticeable change in wheel strategies or irons/flys whatnot, in terms of magnitude, just as we have seen in futures. Hell, the CME just dropped an update on some equity index spread bonds, and they have gone UP, which should be a sign. Check pages 13 onward... https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2022/07/Chadv22-270.pdf
Did I know or believe the markets were going to tank when I entered the position? Well, no! THAT'S the thing! In the past, the current chart pattern at time of entry said we were going higher, based on what it had done in the PAST. But it did not follow that pattern of the PAST, and so now we are in the FUTURE.
I suspect dests main approach hasn't changed because he works from theory and excess rather than back tests
Sorry I can’t not comment on this. It is because we don’t know what the future holds and no trade is guaranteed we use stops, naive noobs hold onto trades until they either get lucky or get killed.