hm, I understand your hypothesis but I don’t think this is the actual reason for majority to fail when trading. Vast majority are killed by noise (fear) of price movements as well as not having a clearly defined exit strategy (greed). The maths is also simple, must have either high win rate or targets to be a multiple of stops. Next comes ‘falling in love with a trade’ and this puppy is a class A drug and should have no place in a trader’s toolbox. Now if you were to analyse some random accounts that consistently lose money and I bet you’d realise that they are a mix of trend-following as well as contrarian trades. Therefore, I don’t support your hypothesis.
What's your timeframe for this magical trade to play out, One day, one week, one month, six months, a year, two years, five years, a decade+? You have to define that from the get-go, and not just hope and wait and see and pray and cheer it on, You have to define all the variables, elements and conditions for each trade. And ideally, craft the trade to your understanding and advantage...and leave nothing to hope and prayer, luck and chance. Oh, if Baron is buying...then that means it's a sure thing to buy Bitcoin now too. That's a Money in the Bank indicator.
In his thread, he explained his reasons for buying, while nothing is a sure thing, I am not using margin and am putting in money slowly.
Guess I figured out what professional traders already knew and use. I was watching a SMB Capital video on trading. It was a review of a trade with the coach and the trader. He was going over the recording of his momentum scalp of FDX at the opening of the market day. He is using the XLI index (white line below in chart) as a gauge for when the run up is going to top out. They discus this in the trade review they are having. Notice how the line for the index movement is the same as in Medved Trader's software. Well.. I feel a little redeemed.. and embarrassed.. Cheers! edit to add: He also mentions how he keeps an eye on what the VIX is doing too. edit to add again: I have no idea why he has an Amazon panel up, except if he is like me, he forgot to change it..
I wonder how many people will complain about shorting against the trend of the last couple of days and then say trading is hard.