Is Trading a Mass/Crowd Psychology?

I cant believe. After 15 months of trading and going no where, i now firmly believe to be successful in trading, i need to have a solid grasp of mass/crowd psychology.

At a certain price range after bullishness, bulls are tired and trend starts to reverse to bearishness.

At a certain price range after bearishness, bears are tired and trend starts to reverse to bullishness.

To understand crowd psychology, it needs phenomenal experience, note taking and revision. This looks to me a journey of 10 years to become a full time trader from an amateur trader.

I got fed up with my losses in trading and after one year of trading beginning from Oct 1, 2010 i started to make notes of the Asian indices market which i trade.

For the first time in my trading life, i am able to understand the scheme of things.

What you guys say? Am i wasting my time in trying to become a discretionary trader?

 

Have you read this thread

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3033413#post3033413

 

Sometimes i think i am a fool because i am putting enormous effort to become a discretionary trader by reading crowd psychology while many guys are using automatic softwares/mindless set ups to trade.

 

I'd tend to answer by the negative.

Too many people involved don't share the same goal = no herd = no mass psycho

just my 0,02

 

Thank you for your contribution. What my experience says-

There is no leader in mass psycho. Price is the only leader.

If there was no mass psycho, markets would have been range bound always- Indecision making.

But since price is the leader in mass psycho, every individual follows the leader and we get clear bullishness and clear bearishness.

 

sounds like you are warping your mind. trading in the twilight zone.

 

Follow the price.

 

I am liking it. Price is the only technical indicator which does not lie.

 

Price is clearly showing a bullish breakout right now, yet this board it littered with traders telling everyone to go short. My conclusion however, is this board represents a small minority of investors/traders that unfortunately are destined to failure unless they change their ways. They think they are smarter then the market, that it is their job to police the direction and make the hero call against the prevailing trend.

I'm thinking many of these traders are relatively new ( maybe starting within 2-5 years ), and big drop in late 2008 / early 2009 has warped their sensibilities. They expect another similar drop, and don't realize that was a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy companies at dirt cheap prices.

 

you have made the biggest leap of faith in understanding what trading is. You are not the fool... the 'many guys' are.