I'm getting out just in case. I fear tomorrow the news might be bearish and the stock market might get hit again.
One can only hope. My short position is getting hit today, though improving. Fortunately, the handful of calls I purchased yesterday have kept me in the green. I'll definitely sell the calls, but I haven't yet decided whether I'll cover my short.
A crash with VIX at 13.50 now? You'll have to better than that. THat said, it has an intraday gap unfilled, at 18.80 now... :eek:
absolutely convinced this selloff was technically driven moreso than fundamentally. the fact that subprimes are bouncing back already, the market already absorbed a weak ADP report, and unemployment #s are better than expected tell me that tommorow's report will remove some uncertainty for the bulls. Even if the # isn't great, it'll give the fed something to work with to change tone and possibly lower rates. Seems bullish to me either way. Go long indexes and buy Japanese Yen to hedge. Getting cheaper. Too many bulls want a 2nd downleg on the correction, and negativity is already nearly priced into the market.
good move, however the media and the bulls will spin any job number positive. 100,000+ jobs are plentiful and the soft landing is here. 75,000 or less, whats that I hear,chance of rate cut now near 80% in mid 2007, BUY BUY BUY.
exactly. now you understand. remember we aren't trading what we already know - we are trading what we don't know. Fear is usually overpriced in times like this. Not to mention, options expiration is next week and lots of short puts need to be protected. what do we know? -subprime bad.. possibility of contagion confirmed [as priced into higher end regional banks and investment houses] -housing bad...no doubt. recovery not truly expected in 2007. -consumer weak in jan and feb... weather partly to blame. -manufacturing strong in feb -oil under control, under 62 -wage inflation UP -price inflation moderating -jobs slowing from housing -bulls are nervous to buy, but are supported by cheap fundamentals on stocks. -shorts own the end of the day as long as bulls are nervous. but shorts should fear foreign market movements, as every day the cause a weak close, it backfires miserably. If tommorow's news changes the outlook significantly from this, then thats where the markets move. Otherwise, nonevent and bias is up.
Thinking the exact same thing...it'll all be presented bullishly and I think Asia is likely to follow through positively and we will likely follow suit tomororow. All the negativists are being taken out of the equation for now, markets are showing them to be overly-nervous compared to those with deep pockets who saddled in and bought big dip. NOTE: I'm playing the overly-optimistic asshole, I'm not really one but it's fun.