Looks like you were lost and found your way...weren't you calling for a 200 pt drop in ES around april or may 2016?
If Saturdays accidental incoming missile alert button was pressed during trading hours than we would have gotten that drop but in 2018.
That's the job of a trader: find out what will happen with high probability. A successful trader will be long when the market goes up, and down when the markets go down. A very simple rule but difficult to achieve. That's why most traders are never profitable.
With hypothetical statements you can proof anything. If I would have bought bitcoins 5 years ago I would be a billionaire. The problem is in the word IF. It ruines all validity of any statement made with this IF.
Are you suggesting the markets are random...? The fact is that for the last 100 days we're closing above the middle of the range 70% + of the time. In fact, close to 40% of the time we're closing in the top of the range. On the contrary, closing at the bottom of the range happens only roughly 10% of the time. So no. Not just as easy. EDIT: Increasing the lookback period to say 500 days does not skew the numbers much either. It's far from a random distribution.
did you read my post ???? why do you think I said use the 10/20 ema??? stop and think ok now do you understand, if not you will never understand. my god, this is why I don't post, you guys don't want to learn anything because you guys already know everything.
This is going to work until it doesn't. We can keep buying the open and selling the close for a profit...But at what point does one throw in the towel when we buy the open and sell the close for a loss? 5 days in a row? 10? At what point does trading into the trend become trading counter-trend? A 10/20 EMA is all fine and dandy for looking into the past, like every other indicator in existence. EVERY indicator in the universe is a lagging indicator. Tells us NOTHING about the future. There is "seeing it right", and there is "seeing the possibilities."
Not sure what your saying? are you suggesting it didn't happen? or are you saying it did but there would have been no affect on the markets? In both cases you would be wrong.
It happened and it was not in trading hours. That are the facts. So your IF has no importance as you can never know with 100% certainty that it will or will not have an impact. So you are just guessing. You don't know what the effect would have been. It would not be the first time that the market would react opposite to what everybody was expecting. If you could predict what the market would do you would be billionaire.