these debates are pointless, because the market has already done it for you. intraday swings are nice... but on the long term chart it's been in a down trend for long time... just don't look at its own chart, you'd need to use the QQQ as a reference. so chart-wise it's kinda dead.
I want Tesla to succeed because I like the vision of a software centric car ,but of course I would say that.
It is actually not Musk's fault. I mean it is his fault believing in bad economical principles and not knowing physics. But the main problem is this: Batteries simply don't have enough energy (aka punch) for the modern world. Not yet. They are simply not economical. Nobody in the Western world makes EVs profitably. Maybe the Chinese can, with their cheap labor. Other carmakers make them because they can afford a loss just to be in compliance with states' laws. Tesla can't. But basing a car factory in CA, making no research on just how much for they could sell them (35K promise, pulled out of his ass), mismanaging the company, no dealer's network,etc. Those are all capital mistakes. That is why Tesla will fail. It would have probably failed as a nieche luxury carmaker, but with the M3 massmarket bondogle, they are doomed.
1. That advantage is working against them because they are running out the tax credits, while other late comers still far away from reaching their 200K limit. 2. They can't raise money and running out of cash.
All European vehicles are crap, including Mercedes and BMW, from a reliability, ease to repair, and cost to repair standpoint, just like US cars except cost of repair. American’s tend to buy US cars out of patriotism and European cars because of sophisticated marketing. China’s cars are likely to have serious quality problems, given their history. Thank God for the Japanesse auto manufacturers. No, I am not Japanesse.
Sadly, I agree with this. First mover advantage is probably statistically noise. I know personally, I created software for a market that didn't exist, someone executed better than me, makes ~12 million/quarter last I checked.