Is this TA?

How do you know who to listen too, though?
On trade2win, you know who the good traders are, because they post lots of realtime calls most days, but on elitetrader, the ones who claim to be experts never demonstrate it.

 

Hi London kid,

So is price going to go back up this time? This is the FTSE 100 H1 this morning

 

I think that's the concept, yes

 

Hey redbox. I have absolutely no idea lol. Bear in mind that I provided one live example on crude oil where I was very sure price would likely return for a number of reasons. This does not mean that every time price breaks out of something it will return to where traders went offside. Trading just doesn't work like that. I suspect you are looking for an edge (its a hunch). You might find my post in Eddies thread helpful.

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...ugglers-out-there.285900/page-25#post-4181164

GL

 

in my experience trading very rarely works on the basis of if A then B.

 

HaHa hey thanks, no not looking for an edge. Just saw this and it reminded me of your post.
It will come back up btw.....at some point.

 

Boom!

 

mmmmm.....this cannot be true!.....let me explain.....
There is nothing in this world that exist "independently" on its own. Everything that exist must "depend" on something else.
If what you are saying is true.....then there can be NO "cause and effect"....."B" cannot happen without "A".....yet....."B" depends on "A".

 

i don't really want to get into a pissing match about logic as it serves no purpose. All I am interested in is finding edges and executing them consistently for green plus winding Surf up for sport.

If you can make it work for you and be in the winning minority then respect and kudos to you.

GL.

 

In trading, it is not as simple as if A then B, for B depends on A and many other variables, which day traders cannot factor. For example, a trending daily breakout in Crude Oil futures appears to be a simple variable (A) leading to a high probability of follow-through the next day (B). The retail day trader is unaware that A(the daily breakout) is codependent upon other variables: A.A, A.B, A.C, A.D, A.E,...etc, (inventories, macroeconomics, reports, short covering) for that follow-through buying to occur. Day traders often assume when they see "A"(daily breakout) that institutions will be looking at similar data and making a decision to continue buying (B) based on that, which is not true.