I feel like trend trading is like roulette where a single number pays out 39:1. Bet on it and you will, eventually, win. Bunches of small losses with the occasional winner.
Sure if you simply “Time” the market and fade clearly established long term trends without confirmatory price action then yeah 39:1 sounds about right.
Lol.... no, that's not what trend traders do... where the hell do some people get these ideas lmao. Entering at random gives you no edge... trend traders seek to capitalize on movement by looking for repeatable psychological patterns...
I trade mostly by following long-term trends, using daily and weekly charts. My two main reasons for trend-following have to do with related but separate probabilities - 1. price in a trend will probably continue rather than reverse 2. if price consolidates, it will probably not hit my TA-based stop located from where a trend reversal would be a more probable outcome How we each define a trend is best derived from the structure of the strategy we're using, rather than a universal definition. My main issue recently has been when to bank profits.
When to "bank profits" needs to be part of your trade plan and a trade plan includes an exit strategy. It can be based on fixed targets...prior S/R, measured moves, fib extensions etc. or it can be a trailing strategy based on successive pivots, ma crosses, momentum turndowns (ups) bar trailers etc. The possibilities of an exit strategy are many but they should be defined before the trade is entered.
Personally, these days I set my profit target and stop-loss level at the time of trade entry. I use modeled historical vol and trading range to establish these levels. These orders are GTC limit orders so when I'm out I'm out and no dicking around.
You're right of course, exit needs as much or more planning than entry. Recently had issue where multiple trades went well into profit but none obviously over-done so I let them run. But the cumulative gain would have added significantly to my account (net +30% in a month) and I let most of this go back into the market by casual exiting - either too early or too late whichever way you look at it. Damn it.
If I might be somewhat judgemental (my apologies in advance) - you are so fortunate in that you have laid bare your path to improvement. You will never buy a true legit "bottom" or sell a "top" in your life. Possibly on a micro-structure short term but never macro. Please reconcile with yourself that when you take a profit, the market will assuredly keep going in your favor. Likewise, when you take a loss, the market could very well reverse in your favor. So what. Quit trying to time the market. It never works on a consistent basis. You take what you model out of the market and that is as good as it gets for anyone. Any person who needs the reinforcement of consistently being "right" about market highs and lows isn't a professional trader doing it for a living IMO. You take what your system gives you and then you look for the next opportunity that your system gives you. This is one of the most enduring and successful predators in the history of planet earth: It's an opportunist; the consummate ambush predator. Many potential food items float or swim by him. He does not necessarily need to catch the largest food item in the river. He has no ego, no hubris to get in his way. He takes the opportunities presented to him and he does not worry about matters of pride.
Please be judgemental: I hope for critical views here of what I do - so I can make it work better. I don't try to time tops and bottoms: my with-trend entries are always weeks after reversal points. And I was trying to let my winners run so they would pyramid as half of them had already done. Then they would close when price pulled back significantly. But focusing on the charts I lost track of the money. I agree, though, I should take what floats by if it floats by. I'm going to have to develop a rule to help guide me with this but something simple like"quit all trades if total unrealised profit reaches 25% of account" etc.