This still looks like a buy on a longer term basis but if i were to short i would wait for it to break 7.60 first
The way I see it, we have visibility of only one week out at best at any time for the forseeable future. But prices are low so if people want to buy in on good stocks, they can do so and expect great returns a few years down the road. But for trading, I cant see a short in Palm due to the excitement of their new phone. There is no telling what will happen when or if the excitement wears off. A great magazine review can send it farther up. An unexpected bankrupcy of somebody else may send it down. The stimulus package may send it further up. An assasination attempt may send it back down. And in the mean time , it may go sideways waiting for the scale to tip either way. This is a 50/50 bet instead of sound trading strategy. You want a short, do Nokia. Its up and may wander a little further up with the Obama rally. But it reports on the 22nd and they have already hinted its not going to be good. Ericson already reported it really bad, and Nokia moved their reporting date up to the Obama rally week. Its clear it may be so bad they are hoping the rally will hide them. It may help, but it will almost certainly sell off when people realize the phone industry is on its arse. Motorola also anounced and then followed with 5000 layoffs. Only Rimm is so far sitting pretty because they have small market share that is rising offsetting the industry slowdown. So Long Rimm, and short Nokia. Pretty safe short term only bets based on sound trading strategy. Oh, and disclaimers. Im a nobody long on rimm and short Nokia.
I'd call the attached an 8 year base and skewed risk/reward ratio. All the shares are owned long by somebody(s). Not some, not most, all. And........in the case of shares short, they have TWO owners. Identified prey irrespective of the CBOE. It's always fun to play for chump change. "Feel good" trades boost the ego.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/01/16/betting-on-bad-amid-hedge-fund-redemptions/ Get wise, or get buried. There's a new sheriff in town Tuesday, and he can't afford to play footsie with these assholes.
Ok, now that were all making money (shorting NOK and longing Rimm), how far down do you think is good for NOK? their earnings reported a 20% disapointment so do you think a 20% stock discount is apropriate? or do you think it will just tank below $10? They say more trouble is ahead, but if people are calling this a bargain and buy, then there is no point to staying short. RIMM is easy, its going back to $150 in lots of fits and starts with very little pullback. Its a monster waiting to be set free when people sence a market recovery on the horizon...
This is eventualy going to zero. Company losing shitloads of money and smartphone market satruated. There are dozens of reasons why palm has no viable future.
Way too soon to write them off. People say their new phone is the Iphone killer. If they can get it to market, it could just save their arse. Lawsuits take a long time and they also use the fancy multi touch screen that the iphone uses. They claim its there own design and RIMM wasnt able to do the same. So PALM would have a distinct advantage to steal market share. Right now I see their chances as a 50/50 tossup. If you have money to burn, flip a coin and pick your side.