I dont see whats going to cause one. It's not gonna be bad earnings because everywhere i look i see the market rewarding blowups, CFC BDK CYMI FLR ZMH etc. It's not going to be terror because Georgie Bush will protect us and it's not going to be housing because Easy Al just told me the correction is over. Not going to be inflation because there isnt any anywhere. The weather might cause a correction, yeah thats it. if an new ice age started tomorrow i bet we would pull in 1%, but i don't have alot of conviction we would come in that much, just sayin'
is that image supposed to be a prediction of some type of crash like other nuts on this forum? again i have to ask, why invest or trade if you're going to be scared of some crash with no evidence behind it every time the market is strong...
he's just given an accurate chart of the wrong thinking in both up and down markets was that over your head?
You got to build something to pull back from. If Katrina couldn't collapse the markets, that means much of the market risk has deflated. Hence much of the pent up volatility has already ravished the markets. You can thank 911 for that. Remember that most of the public isn't participating in the current rally according to money flows. Lots of other markets have deflated. You can thank 2000-2001 for the low volatility. When the buildings are crashing outside the stock exchange doors and markets crash..... blood is literally in the streets, you'd be surprised what kind of traders and investors with increased risk tolerances you begin to breed. There is still a lot of bearishness in the general markets, rampant bullishness isn't prevalent. When the atmosphere does change, you'll know. Your neighbor will start to give you stock tips once again.
The thing about this market is that it's rising in a healthy pattern. This hasn't been a dramatic climb. There aren't a bunch of SPX +20 days. Over the last month or so it has been a good size jump (SPX +8-10) followed by 5-7 rangebound days followed by another good size jump. The rangebound days are the opportunities for bears to cause some consolidation, but they aren't. Retail money is flowing in quickly now so dips are getting bought up fast. I'd expect an even steeper climb through thanksgiving (historically the biggest bull month) followed by a relatively flat DEC. After that insititutions decide whether to claim profits in JAN along with earnings forecasts for the upcoming year. My "guess" is no really big drops (>-10%) until spring.
According to Dow theory, a bull market goes thru 3 phases: Accumulation The Big Move Excess This is the Big Move, we haven't even seen Excess yet. http://stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/dowtheory1.html