Is this possible?

Discussion in 'Options' started by babutime, Mar 3, 2012.

Are the returns he posted possible?

  1. No, this is fake!

    7 vote(s)
  2. Yes, the results seem possible

    7 vote(s)
  3. I cannot tell

    3 vote(s)
  1. gmst


    on a small account like 100k, such performance is definitely possible. Neke made 10x returns few years back when he took 5k to 115k or so in a year on ET itself.

    However, looking at the website - in the case of Mr. Joe, I would guess that either the results are fake - or he is not reporting everything. My reasons are follows:

    1. Spelling mistake in home page - 'institutional' word is wrong.

    2. A guy taking 100k to 1million does not need to sell trading education, he just needs to work for 1-2 yrs more in a very similar way and he will be worth 10 million at least. Education business is for losers in trading - doesn't make sense to get into or continue his education business when he just took 100k to 1 million. Any sane person would rather concentrate on his trading.

    3. The website is too glossy - real deal people maintain bare minimum blogs or websites. His website looks like a classic selling website.

    4. Methodology is very average. Nothing outstanding there at all.

    5. Very average pedigree - it seems that this guy is just trying to make a living by selling his website/training/signal service, because he couldn't get a real job and obviously he is not good at trading to become a career trader.

    I agree none of above points prove anything - but the combination of above points are enough for me to take a bet that the reported numbers don't represent the complete reality.
  2. Wow. A spreadsheet showing performance stats. Where do I sign?
  3. Now THAT is a thread I'd wanna read sometime this week.

    Any links gmst?

    And as for a "selling website", yes, he has this strategy of the week and he throws in these "technical indicators". Mind you, there are links in Bloomberg that cite him as well. Here's a link:

    So then if he is not-legit, it begs the question, how legit is bloomie?

    Still confused...
  4. Either you're Kunkle or you're somehow confusing a blurb about Yahoo's pre-report vol and his fantasy performance. Kind of a lose-lose scenario.
  5. Haha!!:D

    Not Kunkle here Atticus.

    The only reason I linked that article is that I would assume a financial reporting agency like Bloomberg would only interview reputed individuals who know what they're talking about and have made money based on what they know.

    He is also on ThinkOrSwim's TradeFeed quite a bit.
  6. gmst


    Neke has a whole series of threads - the latest one being

    Neke mentions on this page that he took 15k to 135k in 2005, it seems he didn't have a thread then however.

    I won't give any credence to bloomberg quoting him, I would be damn impressed if bloomi ran a coverstory on him though. Journalists are typically smart but they can be deceived quite easily :)

    The same article quotes livevol also - livevol is a cutting edge 'product', not a newsletter. I repeat - this guy is not disclosing everything or is disclosing pure wrong information. I mean its obvious - isn't it obvious to you :p
  7. Yes, it's possible, in fact it's quite common. It just takes a willingness to bet large and a bit of luck.

    The problem is that the vast majority of time, the same approach that leads to huge gains also leads to be subsequent losses of similar magnitude.
  8. It is obvious. Just thought I'd ask.

    His returns fall so smoothly and nicely to whole numbers almost every time- especially the losses: A massive string of losses towards the end of 2011 shows a string of -$2000s and -$7000s.

    Shady. I wonder who his subscribers are.

    And I would also be damn impressed if bloomberg ran a story on him- especially after reading this on ET!
  9. I have some distributions for my strategy, theoretically, if I have a big series of winners I could be in the billions (of course that's not counting slippage and size problems that would hold the strategy back). If I have a string of losers, then I could end up below $1000. I think the site seems believable, but you will face some problems with slippage with his strategy.
    #10     Mar 4, 2012