Hey guys, Noob here. As usual, price broke out when the NFP and unemployment numbers were released today. But on the 5-minute charts of several major currency pairs, price retraced completely within a few bars. Does this occur often? I do understand that NFP and unemployment are "just" fundamental news numbers (albeit important ones..if not the most important ones) and, as such, usually won't be able to change the trajectory or momentum of a currency pair on their own. Still I was very surprised to see the market "disregarding" them as much as they did. =>No continuation at all. I know I can just check form NFP & unemployment dates, but I would like to have your opinion & view/take/ experience on this. Two examples from today's NFP (5 min bars). Both times, the news candle was retraced quickly. EURUSD USDJPY
It is normal. It's called a market. Looks like you just read that if news are bad for dollar - eur/usd goes up, if news are good - it goes down. And it didn't happened. If that would be so simple - I would trade news releases only with max leverage. Easy money
There was other data that came out after NFP (ISM)... Moreover, as the mkt digested the NFP numbers, they turned out to be not all that terrible (a lot of seasonal distortions likely).
Actually, the NFP report was extremely shitty because not withstanding august, it also removed 41K jobs from the previous two reports. The ISM only came in much later. What really screwed you(and me) was that leak by the ECB which was dovish EUR. and stopped EURUSD's ascent. the ECB launched that on bloomberg tv via "unamed" sources after they themselves were impressed with how shitty the NFP was. This is borderline criminal currency manipulation, where's trump when you need him. the nasdaq also went up 0.4 before retracing all of it back, gold however sustained some gains. The other very interesting piece of price action on Friday was the ascent of both gold and the widening of the 10/2 spread. The only explanation I have for that is debt ceilings fear and was able to reinforce this by checking debts maturing pre & post debt ceiling. At the same time algos or stupid people went into XLF and all the banks took +1pc because that spread widened. when the spread compresses again banks will go down again.