Is this market really TOO BIG to be POPPED?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by covelite, Dec 8, 2017.

  1. covelite


  2. tomorton


    Everyone wants to be a genius caller of market changes. In some ways he's right. But not through some secret TA and genius analytical processes. Just statistics. Firstly, 100% of trends end. But secondly, the least likely way for a trend to end is for it to reverse. The faster and further trends travel, the more we think they are going to explode dramatically into an even faster decline, a crash, a burst, a pop, whatever you will - but its just not what they do.

    e.g. The Wall Street Crash, the most famous, most persistent and most damaging(?) in history, the one that prompted so many stockbrokers to dive out of Manhattan windows, came out of a downtrend, not out of a market top.

    So if we get anything other than a reversal into a downtrend within a few days, he's going to look just great.
  3. covelite


    I know it's kind of stupid but we live in that world. I didn't do any stock trading in 2007 nor owning a house but the financial risk changed my life any way. Many companies cut jobs and people lost their work.

    I don't feel we're recovered from the risk but now people are talking about another risk, the bigger one. And I know it will change my life again. No matter I want it or not.
    PennySnatch likes this.
  4. DeltaRisk


    Sure, go long on the S&P.

    No worries there
  5. j109sb


    Bubbles only pop when there's no more liquidity left to keep it going, like a ponzi scheme. I think equity markets are operating on this dynamic. For now CBs haven't done any significant tapering, retail 'investors' are finally buying too and everyone's either ecstatic the market keeps going or have covered their shorts, sending it higher still.
    You can bet the music stops at some point, if not soon and that given how slim volume is there wont be too many seats.